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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Max Smith who wrote (6222)	8/1/1998 1:55:00 PM
From: Alan Palange	Respond to of 22640

Cant' compare....two different worlds Not that there is any way of telling what will happen. With market conditions as they have been, I'm beginning to think that just the opposite happens. Remember that we are getting lots of press, and much of it good. If you were on the side lines and heard of a stock that was very much undervalued, relative to the US market and then heard many on the street projecting anywhere from $170 to $220 with in a year, how would you react. Then we have the 12 IPO's at once, Or the mother of stock splits. I truly do belive that the stock is discounted more then it should be. Sure it should trade at a discount, but even the price now is at a deeper discount then it should be, relative to the history of TBR. Lets hope that many holders in the TBR & TBH stock will sit tight and there is a rush to buy the pearls of the baby bras. I'm not saying that $150 is where we will thread in the near term, I just think we have another top to place. Remember that after the $120's, there is not much to slow it down. Also remember that it's the sum of the parts. Also lets not forget that we had a 15 point move (intra day high of 127 1/2) from before the auction. Probably had to do some filling. We had a fair amount of new comers back 6 to 9 months ago at higher prices that probably dumped in the mid to high 120's. Only thing I can't figure is why we did not see more arb buying after the auction. I would think that most retail buying and fund buying will occur when they can pick and choose. It will be a bumpy ride, that's for sure. Play it on both ends....just be very carful on the short. If anything buy puts, if you want to work the swing. I also wonder if the new operators will find it profitable to average down and buy in the open market. I wonder why the CBOE has limited strike prices (TBH) only up to $135. You would think they would set the same floor and ceiling as TBR. Oh well, it will all be history, at least the first phase, by Friday of next week. Let's see what the operators have to say in the up coming week, as I'm sure there will be mucho press releases to come. All I can say is this: I think for the long play TBH will do fine, actually better then fine. I also think for the short term we will see swings that will make this a very attractive play.