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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GerrieG who wrote (10875)	8/1/1998 2:49:00 PM
From: M.J.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

No. I didn't forget about foreign business... But I don't think 100% market share is realistic either considering the emerging alternatives. I have not seen any info regarding their market share in the 7 other countries they're in right now. Have you? And you are right about advertising being another source of revenue for AOL. Right now they are spilling a tremendous number of ads on their subscribers. Aside from busy signals, that's the biggest complaint I hear. I can't see how they are going to increase advertising revenues except proportionally to an increased subscriber base. In which case my price of $53/share (after 800% subscriber growth) still holds. Moreover, the jury is still out on the value of web-based advertising. It is conceivable that advertising rates will drop because of a lack of actual response to these ads. As far as online shopping, AOL seems to be acting more as a Yellow Pages than actually being involved in the transactions. The brokerage houses together have essentially bought a $50 Million/year advertisement (about 2% of AOL's revenue). I was impressed, but I'd like to see more. I think AOL is a great company, just not a good investment right now. I think Mercedes is a great car too, but I wouldn't pay $400,000 for one. I think this is Iomega all over again.