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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (22972)	8/1/1998 6:07:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, move to 10,000 soon? My head is spinning. You're going to make me crazy! I assume you are referring to the "sampling of financial opinion page?" interactive.wsj.com It is only a sample (given Bearon's, perhaps biased?) Of course it can't be that ALL investment advisors are bearish. What about Bernie Shaeffer? Kip

To: William H Huebl who wrote (22972)	8/1/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I have got to admit the amount of bearishness around has got to be good for a decent rally. Friday had the feel of a capitulation bottom. bb

To: William H Huebl who wrote (22972)	8/1/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

You get BARRONS AT THE LOCAL 7-11 store??????? ITS the sign of the MARKET TOP!!!!!!!!! LOL tc

To: William H Huebl who wrote (22972)	8/1/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I realise that it is subjective, but it surprises me that the article implied that the majority of investment advisors are bearish. From what I hear on CNBC and read it there are few which are very bearish. Many are only bearish to the extent that they feel the market will drop some more, but then recover. So most of them are still bulls accepting the possiblility of a correction. Most of the negativity I hear is that the market could drop to 8500 range, but it will hold and resume to the upside. I really have not heard of too many calling for a very big pullback with the exception of Barton Biggs. I was told that a correction was in the 10% range and a bear market starts at 15% and a crash is over 25%. If we accept such criteria then for us to have a bear market in the DOW it would need to get to around 7950. What I hear on CNBC is that most of the analysts are saying they are bearish but they are still recommending stocks to buy now. I have only heard of one well followed analyst that is not buying any longs, except for trading positions, and that is Jerry Favors. When you say that all investment advisors are extremely bearish - what does that mean. Are they saying that the market will go below 8000. If so then CNBC is really not representing the situation well, which does not surprise me either. Or are they saying that the market will correct some more but are still bullish in the long run. The reason I have doubts to that article you read is that the market sentiment is still over 50%, I believe I heard 52% last week sometime. Also the PUT/CALL ratio is still relatively low. I am also a believer that when the sentiment is overly bearish that is a legitimate indicator that the market will reverse up. And there is that old saying buy when there is blood in the streets. Where is the blood in a 300-400 pullback, thats normal on a statistical basis. Frankly, that article you read appears to be quite extreme and bias on the bearish side for them to say all investment advisors were extremely bearish. Thats bad reporting, unless the writer considers a 300-400 pullback as a BEAR MARKET in the DOW. Subjectively, what I see right now is increasing bearishness, but definitely not blood in the street. Well if the majority of all the analysts are now bearish then we should see blood in the streets for a reversal. I guess it would also be the first time in history for us to reverse out of a bear market without blood in the street. Seeya

To: William H Huebl who wrote (22972)	8/1/1998 11:19:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, A friend of mine told me that in one month's time, we'll all be talking about impeachment proceedings. That 300 page report that Mr. Starr has been preparing is just about ready to go to Congress. It is going to be an eye opener. This is not going to be about Monica. Paulo

To: William H Huebl who wrote (22972)	8/2/1998 12:45:00 AM
From: epicure	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Ha! And I agree. I was trolling for someone, anyone, who saw a rally coming. I got one lukewarm response but mostly what I saw were posts from folks who were selling all there AAPL, or selling all there DELL. Now I agree with you, contrarian that I am, that the bear won't come with bells on. So I bought calls- and sold my puts- but I bought leaps (just in case, being a prudent contrarian). I saw more chance of a K when all the SOX stocks were up about 75% higher than they are now- THEN I was worried. Now, I think we rally, and I will be worried when folks are buying with both fists again and using all their margin to do it.