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To: Ray Rueb who wrote (3135)8/2/1998 3:17:00 AM
From: up_tick  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10081
 
I worked up an excel sheet some time ago that has all the known costs, estimates for revenues, etc, etc, etc. I compiled it from interviews with GMGC folks and from what I know about the telecom business. It's rough, but it is a framework for what-iffing.

You can email me if you want the sheet.



To: Ray Rueb who wrote (3135)8/23/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: Ray Rueb  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10081
 
I'm back from vacation

Since the July 29 fiasco, I have basically been out of the market save for my small trading IRA with 300 shares of GMGC. Not being in the market, and being in Europe for the last 2 weeks has given me a different perspective.

I came back to 140+ unread posts in the GMGC SI thread.

Even after reading all the posts, I currently feel "UNDER" GMGC. I want to be "ON TOP" of it.

I still feel like my question to the thread (from my August 2nd post) remains unanswered:
<<
how much is GMGC really worth:
IF Portico doesn't hit any major snags...
IF GMGC fine tunes its resellers so they do a better job...
IF GMGC signs up 25,000 subscribers
IF GMGC signs up 50,000 subscribers
IF GMGC signs up 100,000 subscribers

Now, no gut feelings or guessing, I can do that on my own...
I want to hear some cold numbers of the form
"25,000 subscribers at an average of x dollars revenue per month
gives a gross revenue of y minus the average expenses of z per month
giving a probable net income of xx per year
and using a PE of yy, makes GMGC worth zz."
>>

This question isn't that hard to answer, is it?



To: Ray Rueb who wrote (3135)8/23/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: Ray Rueb  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 10081
 
Current Market and GMGC musings

I currently feel GMGC is a good buy at 6 1/2.
I placed a limit order for 2000 shares for Monday, and then cancelled it.

I cancelled it for 2 reasons:

1) I have maintained for a long time (read some of my earlier GMGC posts) that the time to make money in the market was before the end of summer. All year long I have been saying I wanted to be totally out of the market by the end of August. Well, it's the end of August and I'm out of the market, though not at a profit.

2) As part of my new strategy, I am discussing all purchases with my wife before I buy, and she is currently suffering from a pinched nerve and in a lot of pain; not a good time for trivial discussions like stock speculations. As part of my recovery from the GMGC dip of July 31, I have amended my trading strategy: instead of my requirement that I be comfortable with any position I take, I will use the requirement that WE be comfortable with any position WE take (it is her money too).

There are still some downside risks in GMGC right now (see my post 3375). BTW: I have repeatedly tried to create links to my previous posts without success. Would someone please post the correct procedure for this?

There is serious upside potential in this stock. I still remain convinced we will see $30/share and possibly $50 by June of next year.

So, an investor would be buying on this dip and a speculator, like myself, will remain on the sidelines for now.