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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (12265)	8/2/1998 7:11:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 164684

I have been reading this thread for a while and have always been surprised by the extreme polarization of the views represented on it: exuberant bulls claiming AMZN will go up forever, and extreme bears predicting it will go bankrupt any time soon. I think both of these extreme camps are fundamentally wrong. I am short-/intermediate-term bearish myself and believe that there will be a proper correction within the next half year (or as early as this week), bringing the prize down to the 40s; but the extreme bears help me to put my own bearishness into perspective, and I have used them successfully as a contrarian indicator. I don't think that anyone can argue in his/her wildest dreams or with the most elaborate manipulation of numbers that AMZN is really worth $110, but it may well be worth about $40, and such an overvaluation factor would not be so unusual in the tech sector. Well-known companies maintain such overvaluations for many years. There is also no evidence that AMZN cannot succeed in the long run. Bears pointing out the low threshold of entry and the increased competition in the future are correct, but ignore the lead AMZN already has at the moment (impressive increase in revenue, dramatic improvement of operating loss/sales, large fraction of return customers) and are turning a blind eye to the dynamics of the internet market. In this respect, I think that those companies will succeed which are best able to continually reinvent themselves under the rapidly changing conditions of the internet market. I honestly don't know whether AMZN will be such a company, and I have my doubts that companies like YHOO and NSCP have a sufficiently dynamical management, but at the moment I would certainly give them the benefit of the doubt and might even consider AMZN a long-term buy (once the price has correctly sufficiently). Anyway, I think that we will have an interesting week ahead in the internet sector. Once that YHOO split rally everyone expects has failed, ... Good trading to all, Phil