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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gameboy who wrote (26882)	8/2/1998 7:56:00 AM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>>Oil Prices Surging<< ??? Why are you teasing Slider with this old news story from March 23? -Greg

To: Gameboy who wrote (26882)	8/2/1998 1:08:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

$15+ crude? ..the article shows a July 31 graph next to it, but if indeed it is old news; it still shows 2 major things. One, that the price of crude is like a coiled spring and wants to move up and that our stocks will react dramatically . Number two, that $15 is ''the'' number where business can continue as usual.... In my opinion one of the true Oil sector ''Ax's'' is Fadel Gheit; he has called the bottom and unequivocably stated that crude over $15 will lead to a ''business as usual'' enviroment. Lets hope so. Hopefully those drillers will take the lead from The Dog and hold firm on those dayrates.Crude being able to pop up $1.91 in a day shows the ''pent up'' reality of trader depressed prices... Once again remember OPEC's numbers have a big lag time when reported. Also; the Saudi Oil Minister virtually promised a ''surprise'' that would not be publically announced, that would be directed toward the ''traders'' and what he termed an artificial manipulation of true value and fair crude prices... If people like George Soros can collapse an country's currency, do not be so niave as to not believe that the current crude prices have been artificially depressed by trader manipulations and if blind-sided by the Saudi Ministers yet unknown tatics; they could explode through $16-$18 turning on a dime... I don't know if this will be THE turning point in crude prices or not, but that is not the important point here. What is the important point; is that crude has been artificially depressed by new market/trader dynamics and that crude prices are like a coiled spring in a can - ready to explode upward once the lid is removed... The production cut numbers are the lid. No one is totally discounting the reduced Asian demand here, it is a factor - but not enough to take crude to $12-$14; crude appears to have a fair value of $15-$16 under current world economic conditions. At those prices some of the best in the business have said - it will be business as usual... When Asian demand recovers then we will see $18+ crude and the big run will start; bringing what I see as a 3-5 year run not envisioned by many, as we will see the industrialization of Eastern Europe with increased demand from the new EU and of course Asia will grow dynamically with China leading the way and throw in the growth in Africa, South & Central America and demand or crude prices will not be the problem - capacity will be ! If we would see a simultaneous overall market correction, with an options expiration and positive OPEC numbers we would turn on a dime; a little luck and time will tell... Remember; It's allways profitable to beat the crowd to the party... One final word for the hesitant; LEAPS...they wont be getting any cheaper and you have the ''gift'' of time...