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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (49001)	8/2/1998 9:13:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ---------------------- As of Friday's close my short-term technicals are smack in the middle and pointing downwards(downside bias). When the technicals are in the mid-range, the market can go in either direction and this is when it is the most susceptible to news items/fundamental changes/etc. If the market was in a strong UPTREND as it was in JAN-MAR, if my short-term technicals got into the mid-range it would be a BUY to the upside. If the market is in a RANGE TRADING TREND, then when my short-term technicals are smack in the middle it normally meant that it could move in either direction about 2-3 days (down 2-3 days, or up 2-3 days), and it would normally take the direction of the bias unless there was significant news to change the direction. If the market is in a strong DOWNTREND, then it would be a SELL signal. Obviously, we are not in a short-term (1-5 days) UPTREND as we we were in JAN/MAR. And it could be argued that we are not yet in a strong DOWNTREND, so lets say that we are in a RANGE TRADING TREND for the immediate short-term(1-5) days. (I keep on mentioning short-term since some have argued my short-term analysis based on long or mid-term criteria. Just want to keep the discussion clear - apples to apples, not watermellons to cherrys). The mid-longer term technicsls are still severely oversold, but what may be surprising to many is that the very short-term technicals, per the criteria I use, is smack in the middle. So the technicals are low but not as low as the media is saying. Obviously, initiating a position when the short-term technicals are smack in middle can be a bit dangerous; however I will be initiating PUTS if there is a intraday upswing that will take the DOW into the 8925-8950 range. Previously, most of us have noticed that most of the action/movement, besides at the open, occured in the late afternoon; however I have noticed that over the last week many of the SELL PROGRAMS occured earlier, some before lunch. I normally like to wait for the late afternoon before initiating, but for tomorrow I will just get in with a small position whenever it gets to my 8925-8950 range. Sure it could go higher, and I will just add on if it does, since I will keep my initial position small. I feel the resistance at the 9050 and 9100 levels are now very strong; therefore I am concluding that the upside risk is far less than the downside potential to initate AUG PUTs. Its not the best timing, but should be workable. Good luck, and seeya