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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ibexx who wrote (3480)	8/2/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: Anonymous	Respond to of 21876

Just keeping the string alive ... not necessarily responding to anyone in particular! I'm considering getting completely out of Lucent at this time. I've had a great run-up and I don't think at the moment there is much more that can be wrung out of the stock. I believe that the market is getting very nervous (as I am) and that there are certainly more sellers at the moment than buyers. Everytime CNBC puts on a talking head analyst during one of their segments like "Taking Stock" and someone phones in and asks about LUCENT, they usually come up with a comment like - "Lucent is a great company, well positioned, had a great run-up, but we believe it is overpriced at this time and don't recommend buying it. In fact, maybe now is the time to think about locking in some profits and taking a little off the table!" You've got to be pretty optimistic to believe that LU can be anything more than a pyramid stock at this time. Is that what the market deems a "momentum" stock? Like the Internet stocks that just keep going up and up because they keep finding someone willing to buy in at these very high prices. The last couple of days have shown just how LU can swing and you've got to be concerned that when the earnings were announced and the company beat the Street by 5 cents it tanked. That tells me that those that bought the two days before that announcement were in there just to drive up the price a little bit more. The volume of shares trading (7/20) = 9,161,600...(7/21/) 16,245,800 and a high that day of 108 1/2 ... and then when earnings were announced on (7/22) and shares traded equaled 13,998,400 with the difference of 2,000,000 or so being those who were caught with their pants down while the stock headed south, closing that day at 100 5/8 and for the most part closing a little less each day...well, for me I think I'll now be short. I can get out easily at this point since my shares are mostly held in a 401K ... do my thing and take my "flight to safety" and sit this market uncertainty out for a while. I'm not a day trader, a short seller, a put or call person, or whatever schemes people use to make a buck in here. Being a retired Lucent employee, I just want to preserve what I have made since April 1997 and take some money off the table as they say. But I'll be peeking in here from time to time to read what you all have to say. I sure hope things don't turn out to be bad on Monday. I probably should have gotten out on Thursday (7/30) when LU closed at 95 1/4. Since I'm in a 401K I have to take whatever the closing price is at the end of the day. None of this phoning and trying to get out if the stock just happens to be rising one morning...I have to wait till 4:00 PM and I've seen what can happen in the last 40 or 20 minutes ... many times a sell program and sometimes a buy program! Happy hunting!

To: Ibexx who wrote (3480)	8/2/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: HMB Mikee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

As one looking to invest in LU, i am dissuaded by the constant references by analysts and prognosticators that, while LU will have tremendous growth in terms of earnings per share in the future, most of that is already priced into the stock at this level. I would welcome your comments on that frequently heard statement. Mike

To: Ibexx who wrote (3480)	8/2/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: Maxer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Ibexx-- You mentioned you sold some of your options as the price went down. This is a very practical move, but I could use some guidence. 1- did you completely cover your holdings? 2- how far out are your options placed and at what price level? 3- I take it you buy the puts on rallies. 3- what do you do to replace the options you have sold if the market continues to dive? Do you then sell the stock? Do you ride it down? I'm totally out of the market right now. This is best for my tolerance of what is happening now and for the protection of earnings. But when I come back in I want to have a protection strategy clearly defined.