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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Oil and Gas Exploration Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wolfdog2 who wrote (1)	8/2/1998 11:09:00 AM
From: Retro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 318

Glad to see this open. I bought UPR and BR last week and feel positive on increasing gas prices as winter approaches and as the rig count drops, but not oil. Take a look at: oil-gasoline.com Good luck, retro

To: wolfdog2 who wrote (1)	8/2/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 318

Wolfdog- I'll act like a true Marshwiggle here and present the bearish case (I haven't read the Barron's article): The slowdown of drilling in the GOM will at best maintain gas prices. Both producers that I've talked to made remarks about the surprising strength of gas prices with storage levels so high (does this mean that something is going on behind the scenes that we can't see?). Companies will drill even with thin profit margins, and I've seen cost per MCFe of $1.60 or so up to $1.85 or so in recent quarters. Gas closed somewhere in the low $1.80's on Friday. In addition, I perceive that we are very dependent on La Nina being all that she's cracked up to be. This summer was supposed to be very hot, but on average is has been temperate (tell the people in Dallas that, I know!). If she doesn't come through then we have to look somewhere else for salvation. As you know, I'm very long on this sector, but I've been considering buying puts on companies like BR, BRR, DVN, etc. One reasonable strategy might be to go long on a land producer (like SFY) and short on a GOM-based producer to play the hurricane-card (name some?). Or maybe you can fine-tune this and go long on a land-based gas producer and short on a GOM-based oil producer. At any rate, the trend is down, and I'm just hanging on and hoping for a reversal. BTW, the next time I get wind of El Nino coming this way I'll short the dickens out of this sector. pg