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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (23024)	8/2/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

David and other bulls: Do you really think that after a dip to 1075 (SPX) the bull will return? A 10 % drop can hardly be called a proper correction after the typical recent annual increases. The market looks very tired to me and the Goldilocks scenario is starting to crumble (see decreasing earnings growth). I think that the market is overdue for either 1. a proper correction (30 - 50 %), followed by an extended flat period, or 2. a mild crash (50 - 70 %), followed by a sharp rebound. I think the Fed's recent statements are designed to try to prevent 2. by taking some of the air out of the bubble. Greenspan is a wise man, but even he may not be able to prevent serious panic selling at some point (note how he praised the retail investors for their buying on dips; clever move). I am not predicting that either 1. or 2. is imminent. It its safer/more profitable to go with the flow for the moment (i.e. go short-term long when it bounces at 1075), but being prepared for 1. or 2. (or 1. and 2.) nevertheless. Good trading, Phil

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (23024)	8/2/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 94695

David: My indicators don't lend themselves to ongoing backward revisions! (As it seems Ewave does.) However, I do agree with the 1175 area as being the next strong area of support for the SPX. As that seemed to be the floor for the last sideways moving consolidation. If that does not hold, and you have to do some more backward revisions, I suspect the 983 area will be the next strong area of support for the SPX! As this is the area of the Oct and Dec 97 peeks. Regards, LG

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (23024)	8/2/1998 12:57:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 94695

David, I see the support at 8570 to be the test which would fall in line with your 1075. I also see a intraday bounce of 40-60 DOW points, off Friday's close sometime tomorrow, which I will take as an opportunity to buy PUTS. I also previously indicated in my index update, that we should see a runup to 9050-9100 by the 1st week of SEPT, then the real fun begins to the downside with the 1st main support at 7700-7800. If it is really bad do feel it could also test the 7200-7300 range. What is interesting is that we are coming up with similar targets/timing but using totally different methods of analysis.The previous times that happened they worked. Hope I did not jinx us. Seeya