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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (23028)	8/2/1998 11:47:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot	Respond to of 94695

How much of a bounce do you think that we could have on Mon./Tuesday?

To: bobby beara who wrote (23028)	8/2/1998 12:25:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Respond to of 94695

Bobby, From the 7/20 peak, I now believe the 5 waves of A completed at the lows on 7/24. We then proceeded into a complex 3-3-5 B wave, which is what threw me. I believe the "B" wave breaks out as follows: 1 of a of B ended on 7/24 afternoon's highs 2 of a of B ended on 7/27 morning's lows 3 of a of B ended on 7/27 afternoon's highs 1 of b of B ended on 7/28 early afternoon's lows 2 of b of B ended on 7/28 mid afternoon's highs 3 of b of B ended on 7/28 late afternoon's lows 1 of c of B ended on 7/29 morning's highs 2 of c of B ended on 7/29 late afternoons's lows 3 of c of B ended on 7/30 mid morning's highs 4 of c of B ended on 7/30 mid afternoon's lows 5 of c of B ended on 7/30 late afternoon's highs From Late Thursday, 7/30, I now believe the C wave began. Since A took exactly 4 trading days to complete, I believe C will take approximately the same, running the markets lower into Wednesday afternoon. We probably completed 1 of C on late Friday, so I do expect a wave 2 bounce into Monday late morning/afternoon, which will probably rally the S&P 10 points or so. Then, the real selling will begin, taking us to the 1075 area + or - 5 points by no later than late Wednesday. I think this forecast jives with Temple's forecast as well. Off the 1075 area, you have to expect a sizeable rally, as that should be approximately the 200 day MA for most indices. (Should equate to around 8550 on the Dow). I'm looking for a minimum 50 SPX (400) dow point rally off those lows, probably into early September. Then from there, it will be anybody's guess, but I expect the move from the price point in early September to be huge, either up or down. If it is down, then we see 900 on the SPX, and 6800 on the Dow (Jan's lows will be taken out). If it's higher, we'll make our way to 1350/10700. What do I really think this market is worth? About 800 SPX, max., but true value and market value are rarely closely aligned in this business. Regards, David