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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (23032)	8/2/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: Philipp	Respond to of 94695

LG: Severe crash: 70 - 90 % (not in the cards). I think with the extraordinary recent annual increases, one also has redefine the terminology for corrections/crashes. 10 % is just a small dip, invisible on a logarithmic plot. 87 looked like a crash at the time, but in retrospect was just a proper correction, healthy for the market in the long run (well, a one-day drop of 20 % still qualifies as a crash). My definition of a crash starts at 50 % (over an extended period of time), since I consider the market overvalued by a factor of 2 (by historical standards; I don't believe in new era BS). So a drop by 50 % would just bring it back to historic average valuation. I don't necessarily expect a crash, but I do expect a proper correction of 30 % + over the next year, and I will be prepared for it (and I would certainly not call that a crash). Cheers, Phil