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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (5414)	8/3/1998 1:48:00 AM
From: James Silverman	Respond to of 9719

V1, A Couple of stock ideas to throw out there. 1. Geltex ($20). Given you appear to be deep into GENZ or at least bullish, this is the company they are JV'd with for a phosphate binding drug for dialysis. NDA is filed. Approval appears as lock tight as you get. Approval expected in November. Market size is decent--should be $100M plus easily within a few years. Deal is 50/50 with GENZ. Cholesterol drug right behind, in phase III. Obesity drug to enter clinic next year. Market cap is reasonable at $340M, with $110M in the bank. 2. Pathogenesis ($27 3/4). Lead drug is for Cystic Fibrosis and was approved late last year. Profitable right now with potential for huge ramp in earnings over the next few years. Key is earnings leverage. High margins (85%), low costs: 24 man sales force, budgeted r&d in the $30M range. If TOBI reaches $150M in sales, I have them earning $3 a share---which is a bit higher than analysts are estimating. I see no reason why they won't reach this target for sales, although perhaps r&d costs will be higher than I expect. Expanding indications, TB drug in clinic, plus a new inhaled antibiotic to enter clinic next year. Appears to be very well managed. 4 insiders buying of late, one substantially. So anyhow, a couple of lower risk stock ideas with solid upside potential. Also think ARDM looks cheap.

To: Vector1 who wrote (5414)	8/3/1998 2:17:00 AM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

I don't know much about these patents. But, I do recall what Roy Whitfield said at the INCY annual meeting, essentially that there is no single overriding patent in this area, that Synteni has a strong patent position with more to issue and that AFFX has a strong patent position and that basically each company needs to be able to ultimately use the others patents. He really seemed to imply that they will negotiate a settlement at some point. I think the delay might be that the companies are waiting for the latest stuff to issue from the PTO. There is also the AFFX/HYSEQ dispute to take into account too. Given that it seems that they need each other, I wouldn't expect a royalty situation as much as a cross licensing, but hey...what the hell do I know, I've never even looked at these patents. I think the pricing component of the argument was interesting, but don't see how it would help INCY if they have to charge more so they can pay it to AFFX. However, the tone of this article: "Affymetrix was recently granted a new patent (patent # 5,744,305) that puts it in a stronger position to win this dispute." belies an East Coast/European attitude....that there will be a winner, and hence a loser. This is Silicon Valley, land of the Win-Win attitude when it comes to deals. My guess is that they work out a deal that is great for both companies. They later say that it would be a win for both companies because INCY will be forced to charge more for their chips (so they can pay AFFX). Well, what if INCY can pay a royalty and still be cheaper because their processes to make the chips are cheaper than AFFX? They can really cleanup based on price and capability then, even though they'd have to feed Bucks to AFFX. They really are aiming for different market niches, at least initially. INCY/Synteni is going for more of the genomic analysis side of things based on long probes and AFFX is going for more of a clinical analysis side of things based on a short probe. Plus, the first rule of patents is that they don't mean anything until they have survived a challenge. My gut feeling on this is that it really isn't a major issue, and that an amicable resolution will be worked out without going to court. It isn't like these are bitter enemies. These companies continued to collaborate on other projects after the patent suit filings. Have fun at Arrowhead and watch out for the mosquitoes @;-> Rman