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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (23049)	8/2/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Respond to of 94695

Thomas, FWIW I have at times looked at specific sector funds on a WEEKLY chart when the signals become confusing(as if they aren't most of the time :-)) Anyway, the funds I am looking at replicate the W you are referring to here when viewed on a weekly basis. I have said before that I would make a good contrarian indicator, so as of tomorrow I will convert my last few remaining longs (and they are very few) to cash and watch from the sidelines. Now since I "don't know much but what I know is pretty much" everyone probably should do the opposite and go long. :-) Monty

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (23049)	8/3/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 94695

But specifically with regard to your comments on the 87 pattern. ..... So it very well may be we are days instead of weeks away from the BK. Have you looked at the 1929 chart? It is even more like the current one. However, like you I think the downside could happen faster than then or in 1987 so there could be a BK before the end of August. The trigger is likely to come out of Asia I think as I can't see anything dramatic enough in the US that will come up. I can't see Clinton resigning for example really having an important effect. The GDP figs are out now and interest rates are unlikely to go up. Dell computer losing money in its report this month would be a dramatic event. I'll be following their report closely. The Asian event could be the Nikkei falling through 14000 for example. News on CNN today is the new postal minister says she won't be supporting the stock market with postal savings funds anymore. Today I expect upside is more likely than not. David