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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (23063)	8/2/1998 8:48:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I2, This link will give you a big picture look of the price action in '87. I don't know where to go to get a "zoomed in" perspective on the net. decisionpoint.com As for my bullish forecast, looks like time has run out on the bull. My original forecast called for much higher price action by now, and what we got was nice, but it didn't provide the grand finale explosion I had been looking for. The month of July was a heightened alert time due to the ratio of cycle wave 3 to cycle wave 1. This indicator warned of the month of July as the most likely topping period for cycle wave 5. Wave 5's are often truncated, so why should I be surprised that it came up short of my expectations? I don't believe we have finished with cycle wave 5 higher per se, but I do strongly believe we've seen the highs for the move. The only way I would believe otherwise at this point is if after we see the SPX decline to 1075, if it were to rally greater than 70 points or longer than 3 weeks, i would reinstate my bullish forecast. As it stands, i expect the market to rally 58 SPX points off the low we make this coming week, in a rally that lasts roughly 2 full trading weeks. This is based on the assumption that the rally we'll see off the lows is the 5th primary wave higher of cycle wave 5. Primary wave 1 was 230 points, and lasted 4.5 months. Primary wave 3 was 115 points, and lasted 1.5 months. Primary wave 5 should maintain the same ratio to 3 as 3 had to 1. When this primary 5 of cycle wave 5 ends, which should be the 3rd week of August, we will have completed the 16 year old supercycle that began in 1982, and will have to face a correction of the magnitude not seen since 1987. But instead of being a relative quickie, this one will have the staying power of a '66-'82 correction, or a '29-'42 correction, pick your poison. What are your thoughts of where we head over the next several months? Regards, David

To: Investor2 who wrote (23063)	8/2/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: Larry Anthony	Respond to of 94695

Re: 1987 chart link request lowrisk.com

To: Investor2 who wrote (23063)	8/3/1998 3:10:00 AM
From: Bonnie Bear	Respond to of 94695

I2: 1987 happened against the backdrop of rapidly rising interest rates, money was flowing from stocks into bonds. Hard to see money flowing from stock into bonds here unless rates go much higher somewhere. It looks more like it will be a long grinding bear than a kahuna at these interest rates. BTW, here's some stats: # of microcap stocks (less than 300m): 5000 # of largecap stocks (over 30B) 104 # of small/midcaps (3-30) 490 percent of microcap/smallcap/midcap with p/b <2, p/e <20: 20% percent of large cap 1% (a foreign stock!)