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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Solid who wrote (4701)	8/2/1998 8:27:00 PM
From: flickerful	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

<<Anybody have any thoughts on the market this coming week.>> the futures are -25.10 at 20:16, solid. i feel it may be rather grim but check this thread a generally good technical discussion on the market trends... Subject 1638 randy

To: Solid who wrote (4701)	8/2/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: 8/02/98 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: A pending Peabody Valley (108.56) was reached last Friday as PFE corrected with the general market. Da Model predicts that PFE will continue to decline 2.0% to a new Valley (107.61) this week. Commentary The Peabody Peak of 120.56 reached on August 14,1998 has been officially confirmed. This Peak was 5% below the Model PForecast of 126.59 and reflects the strong influence of the general market, Big Pharma and Viagra news on PFE. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut-feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (7/31/98)......From Today Last Peabody Peak:..... 7/14/98......120.56..........+9.8% ...................-19 Last Peabody Valley: .. 7/31/98 ....108.56.......... -1.1% ....................-2 Pending Forecasted Next Valley.....8/07/98....107.61..........-2.0%................. 6 Forecasted Next Peak.......8/18/98... 128.76.........+17.3%..................16 (If Model is Wrong) ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (7/26/98): PFE: 113.50, DJ: 8,937: PFE will once again be driven by the market direction and Viagra news. Monday should be the key day to determine the current direction. Da Gut Feel: The general market could bring PFE down to a new Valley..The Peabody Portfolio has an open market order@110 1/2. Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: General market brought PFE down to a new Valley despite growth in Viagra New Rxs reported last Monday...Thumbs Up Peabody PForecast Record (72 weeks): 47-25 (65%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (8/02/98): PFE: 109.81, DJ: 8,883: PFE will once again be driven by market forces beyond its control. The very low PFE volume on Friday indicates the Valley will go lower as profit-taking continues. Be very aware of buy opportunities, they will disappear as the trend heads back up. Da Gut Feel: A new Valley will be set around 105-106 followed by a rally to close the week above 110. ___________________________________________ Peabody Portfolio Total return:........................................+82.3% PFE @ 109.81 Annualized return:...............................+78.0% % of Peabody purchases in the black... 90% (18 out of 20) Since April 1, 1998, 1998, the Peabody Portfolio has added 1,000 PFE shares to the mythical Peabody Portfolio. (Average price 105.825) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 20 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,600 PFE shares at an average price of $60.25 (only 3.1% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 3,600 Average Price of Purchases:....... $60.25 Total Costs: ...............................$216,888 Total Market Value:.....................$395,316 Total Potential Profit:...................$178,429 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 Total:............3,600.........$60.25 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: :..................$104 to $109................................. ________________________________________ PFuture Actions That Will Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx trends:..................................... Every Monday throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: ...................................Throughout 1998 European approval of Viagra:........................August- December, 1998 NDA submission of Celebra...........................Late 1998 Expedited review of Celebra.......................One month following NDA submission Initial reports of Viagra international sales.......September-October, 1998 PFE R&D Meeting........................................October 29, 1998 ED news in the media: ................................Throughout 1998 Japanese approval of Viagra .........................First half, 1999 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Viagra sales for the second quarter, 1998 were $411 million, the highest recorded sales for a new pharmaceutical product during its first three months on the market. Analysts estimate that Viagra will have 1998 sales of $0.923 billion, a 35.1% increase over earlier estimates. ............................................1998 Est...1998 Est ...........................................(Billions)....(Billions)..... Comments NationsBanc........................$1.100.......$0.759...... $.205B (international) Alex Brown .........................$1.000.......$0.750..... $1.2B (1999) Deutsche Bank ....................$1.000 ......$0.750..... $1.75B (1999) Gerard Klauer........................$1.000......$0.300.... $2.9B (2000) Gruntal ................................$1.000......$1.000.... $8 B peak (2005) Cowen...................................$0.850........................$5B+ (2002) Furman Seltz.........................$0.811........................Only $100M in 3rd Qt Bear Stearns..........................$0.800......$0.600 ......$200M in 3rd Qt Merrill Lynch...........................$0.750 .....$0625...... Countries that have approved Viagra United States Brazil Costa Rica Venezuela Switzerland Andorra South Africa ____________ PFE Stock Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE usually announces a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, the PFE CEO stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, a 3-1 PFE split announcement will be made in late 1998 or early 1999. A request for additional authorized shares was apparently not made by the Board on July 23, 1998.