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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ed who wrote (9920)	8/2/1998 11:57:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

If MSFT had fair value of 32, why would the company buy its own shares from open market at 85 a share and spend 850 million in doing so? Well MSFT is values at about 90 right now. That is when the company will start buying back its own shares again. Short term: ----------- I am expecting the stock to hit around 100 the next 60 days. Could go to a low of 95 or so even. But after the initial reaction to Sept 8th trial date, and then the October earnings rlease, I expect the stock to get back to 110-120 range again. I then expect MSFT to over aorund there and settle at 120 by year end. But in January I expect the stock to get back to the 130 range after Jan earnings release. Longer term: ----------- By FY2000, that will end June 2000, MSFT will have the following impressive figures for you to think about. (a) Reported revenues: $26 Billion (b) Cash in hand : $25 Billion (c) Reported profits : $10 Billion (d) Deferred Revenues: $10 Billion (e) Stock price : 220 (before any future splits) (f) EPS : 3.65 (g) PE : 60 (h) Market cap : 660 billion Longer term, I am looking at the revenues and profits, cash flow from follwoing products during the window Windows 98 -> Now to 00 Office 2000 -> April99 - April 01 SQL 7 -> Jan 99 - Jan 01 NT5 -> Oct99 - 02 Exchange plat-> Dec 99 - 02 Windows CE Visualtools Web TV New Portal -> msn.com resulting e-commerce revenues and profits Someday in the next 10yrs, the company will have 100 billion in revenues with 50+ billion in cash in hand, market cap then would be 2 trillion, the stock price will be 600+ The total size of all US stock market is about 12 trillion. Considering it will gorw at 15% rate, in about 6 years that would be 25 trillion dollars. So I think MSFt taking about 8% of all US stock market valuation shouldn't surprise us. anyone want to share some thoughts? johnd