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To: Thean who wrote (1471)8/2/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: The Perfect Hedge  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14427
 
Thean-
No fears on CIEN.I feel with a pullback in this market CIEN is surely coming down but I'd like to get a bounce to enter again....
IBM I like..Oct 130's...

B




To: Thean who wrote (1471)8/3/1998 12:06:00 AM
From: drsvelte  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14427
 
Svelte's Sunday Shorts

The big selloff late Friday afternoon brought many stocks down on fairly high volume. This made it difficult to identify those equities that were moving down on the basis of their own mo-mo or were just carried along in the downdraft. If you want to play a technical short, KMB might be one to look at.

Because of this, I focused on more "fundamental" shorts. Here's what I'm looking at:

SLOT - gaming is a very slow growth industry with capacity being added all the time. SLOT has had an up-and-down year and I have missed shorting it at opportune times particularly last fall. I think now would be a time to consider an enter. Chart shows a double bottom with a breakout south.

PPG - major supplier of resins, glass, paint to automotive and aircraft industries. As the US economy slows PPG will be hurt. Future EPS growth looks constrained. Last quarter a -2.2 EPS surprise and forward EPS was recently downgraded. Current P/E trades at premium to projected earnings growth. Technically price is below 200 day MA.

UN - Unilever is in the international consumer goods industry (foods, detergents, personal care products, etc.) Its P/E ratio is relatively high (37) and earnings growth is slowing. It five year EPS growth is about 10% which is less than the industry average and certainly does not support that kind of multiple. Future EPS downgraded by analysts. Rated "hold" by analysts and sell by Zacks. Chart is bearish.

BST- British Steel is the 4th largest manufacturer of steel in the world. With Asia and slowing growth here and in Europe, steel sales will be declining. Nucor might be a good short too.

On a "day trade" type basis, I am looking to short ESPRY and CATP in the internet sector depending on how the market moves. Frankly, I think these would be good shorts period, but their volatility can be disconcerting.

Tomorrow should be interesting. If the market is oversold, we should se a "pop" and many here on SI have been speculating just so. I would think if the market moves up after the open, but then fades and fails to keep any gains, then there will be some serious downside. BWDIK anyway and all disclaimers to providing advice to buy, sell, etc do apply!

Good trading to all!