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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert w fain who wrote (3966)	8/3/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: Charlie Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6180

Bob: If he's right, TXN sold out exactly at the bottom: From The Street.com: Micron Says 'The End Is Near!' Last up at the conference: Micron Technology (MU:NYSE). Kipp Bedard, Micron's vice president for corporate affairs, was keenly aware how tired everyone was. "I guess I can say, unit volumes are up and prices are going up, so let's go home!" he said. Bedard had reason to feel good -- Micron's stock has finally started rising. Over the past three days it has risen 4 1/8 to close at 31 3/16 Thursday. By the end of the presentation he seemed to have a good number of the 400 or so fund managers convinced the bottom had been reached and the upturn was coming. Bedard, however, was no picture of overflowing enthusiasm. He cautioned that DRAM unit volume increases aren't necessarily sustainable and could lead to another inventory correction. But in the breakout session he sounded some very bullish notes. (Reporters are usually banned from breakouts, but Micron didn't kick them out.) Bedard noted that customers with channel inventory cleaned much of it out in June. Orders began picking up in July on components and spot-market brokers, who had virtually disappeared in the past six months, have reappeared and are bidding up parts. Micron's own inventory peaked in late April at four and a half weeks and is now "significantly" lower than three and half weeks, he said. A key element for the company is how fast the world is ramping up in memory bits per box. The company's top 10 customers have been telling it that bit growth will be 80% by year-end. This led fund manager Edward Hemmelgarn, of Cleveland-based Shaker Investments, to wonder whether Micron will be hit with a product shortage if demand surges towards the end of the year. Hemmelgarn did some quick calculations and concluded that expected growth in memory needs would increase demand by 160%, but Micron was preparing for only an 80% increase in capacity. "That will go a long way in sucking up supply," he whispered. But Bedard put Hemmelgarn's concerns to rest. A facility Micron recently purchased would increase capacity as would new technology. And Micron's joint-venture partners in Singapore will soon be ending some contract work and that too will free up capacity if needed. "We are okay through next summer," Bedard said. That was enough for Hemmelgarn. "I think I'll buy Micron," he said.