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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Michael who wrote (12560)	8/4/1998 10:18:00 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13949

Kevin, I think I'm as bullish as one can get on Y2K, but for months I've been telling people if I were a short I'd short SEEC and CRYSF. ACLY and IAIC took me by surprise because I thought DEC and CA, respectively, revenues would have kicked in already. All those vendors sell Y2K tools. While many companies may just be starting their Y2K assessment, the Cap Gemini study shows there is a 90% chance they've already bought a tool. Unless they have some core business to fall back on or unless they've partnered with a service provider, I think they'd be hurting about now. Another important criteria is how a tool vendor books revenue. Some get it all up-front by pre-figuring line of code cost into the price. I believe MFGY does this (warning). Don't know about CRYSF. But, regardless, from what I've read, their estimates are for the same eps as last quarter, so, even if they hit estimates they've shown no growth. Even Y2K companies with good earnings growth, like COGIF and ALYD, got clobbered. I also don't hear very good things about CRYSF's Euro tool. Here's a comparison chart: techstocks.com But I hope CRYSF breaks the trend, for your sake. - Jeff