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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26941)	8/3/1998 5:18:00 PM
From: Harold S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Bravo!! One of the best posts I have read yet..and exactly why I have been judiciously loading the boat slowly on UTI and MDCo since 13 and 15 respectively. I may be down..but ask me where I am in 2 years!!

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26941)	8/3/1998 5:22:00 PM
From: SJS	Respond to of 95453

One comment: It's your money....you should enjoy how you spend it. Regards

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26941)	8/3/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95453

slider, you said >>This is a game where ''close'' counts and it pays well !<< An obvious observation: the price of these stocks depends on the price of oil. The price of oil in the short run depends on the producers, a bunch that doesn't even trust each other. So, the price of the stocks depends on people you wouldn't trust. GM I enjoy reading your posts.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26941)	8/3/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Respond to of 95453

I don't think it's the profit takers who are selling FGII down, although there may be a few. I think it's primarily the people who bought last week, and before that the people who bought the week before. My feeling is that traders (or perhaps some would-have-been investors) bought, saw the stock start to fade, and sold before they lost more than a point or two, driving the price down further. And if the stock starts to fade tomorrow, some of the buyers from today will be the sellers. As for your point on drillers vs. service companies, I had always taken the view that drillers were more dangerous buys than selected service companies. I was very, very wrong. I still believe from a profit perspective, the best service companies will perform the best (although RIG's income for the next six months is pretty much set). But as far as stock prices go, I don't think it is a done deal even at these levels. Say, for example, an institution decides tomorrow to call it a day in the patch. So they liquidate. And it just so happens that they are holding primarily VRC or RON (since they've already dumped their drillers). What will happen to VRC or RON? The same thing that happened today. In the long term, oil prices go up (hopefully), and everything goes up. I'm just playing devil's advocate here. I like the equipment and service guys the best, but I am now watching their "relatively high" PE's get whittled down toward the sector average. I am jealous, by the way, of anyone starting positions at these levels. If I weren't invested as much as made sense, I'd probably be looking at buying.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26941)	8/3/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

History; when it repeats itself - learn to profit from its lessons... Ever wish you could take what you know today and go back in time - to use that knowledge ? Well you can... Let's take one of those dispicable shallow water GOM Jackup drillers... MDCO. How low can it go ? Once again - knowing the right questions are perhaps more important; and certainly more profitable - than knowing the right answers !!! How low can MDCO go ? - this is the loser's limp question, the sniveling, chicken-little - the sky is falling attitude. The answer in relative terms in light of this selloff is irrelevant - call it Zero. Happy Bears ? - zilch ! , o, nada, el finito, the big ZERO ! - that's how lowwww they can go ! But answering that question will not pay 4 years tuition @ Notre Dame or Stanford for your kids, wont buy that Prowler or Porsche, won't buy that Boat or a Lincoln Navigator; and it sure as hell won't put much cash in your pocket... But; the correct ''QUESTION'' can do all of the above. That question is - at these levels how likely is it that I can achieve ''historic'' quality returns in a reasonable timeframe ? The CRB made a 6 year low today folks ! How many quarters in a row has crude ever stayed below $18 ? let alone $16 ? Hogs get fat, but pigs get slaughtered - or miss the boat; trying to ''time'' THE bottom... How much damn longer should one wait ? - Armageddon ? Folks; remember that bad news 6 months out is priced into these stocks today ! Maybe this chart can answer the question : quote.yahoo.com On the above chart for MDCO; In mid 1994 how many people still held, how many averaged down and how many puked - capitulated & flat out sold - never to go near another damn oil stock ever again ? Sound familiar ? Chart look familiar ? History look familiar ? yes; bears - the answer could be that MDCO ''could'' go lower ! - OPEC might not cut & Iraq might dump, Asia's demand may fall lower yet, day rates could plummet, the overall market might correct and we might follow and the world may come to an end. BUT; the QUESTION should be - how high can we go ? - when we return to ''normal'' flat market conditions; let alone perhaps to new or historic highs ? Gee; guess what, 'ole MDCO did bottom, turned and went from $3 to $20 in 2 years and to $30 in 3 years ! 10 times your investment in 3 short years; just think now - that would be 20 times your money on Margin; $50K turned into a cool Million. Lots of people on this board have $5-10 25 & $50K in individual stocks. But no one is going to sneeze at a cooool million ? Yes; I am guilty of perhaps being irrationally exuberant (or am I ?), but I now have over 30 charts on file studying present driller, service and E&P stocks and their price and crude price histories. When I say ''historic returns'' - guys; other than the Internet stocks; these ARE historic returns ! I'm am leveraging my ass into some of these stocks presently; NOT blindly accross the board buying; but selective buys as opportunities arise; 15% 1 day selloffs fall into that ''opportunity'' catagory 'ala BDI today. and yes we will see more opportunies coming soon, but a strong case for being close enough, that it no longer matters on some stocks can be made comfortably. Some E&P companies with low, or no debt, strong proven reserves, growing earnings , at all time low price & cash flow valuations, sitting on new technology, recent expansions and acquisitions are at 10 year lows ! not 52 week, not 2 year, not 5 year but TEN YEAR lows !!! They have charts like MDCO or better ! Those that dare venture into the ''Valley of Death - by 1000 Cuts'' will have something to be irrationally exuberant about someday ! For they will have some '' Historic Returns'' anyone have the guts to seize the opportunity to grasp a cool Million ? $50K in a 10 bagger on margin over 2-3 years makes $ONE MILLION; a 5 bagger is $500,000 - anyone see any candidates out there ? - bottom fishing on BDI, UTI, PTEN, TCMS, MAVK, GW, MDCO, CDG, EVI ? Will FLC grow into a monster ? Will RIG ? Can FGII become one of the next success stories ? Will OMNI become the next Digicon-Veritas ? Someone will; probably more than a few... Gentlemen; the ''bell' is ringing - anyone else hear it ?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26941)	8/4/1998 12:53:00 AM
From: waverider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

>>FGII is a good example where common sense and human analysis must be used. Here is one of the best long term growth companies<< You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. FGII, as are all the other oil service plays, are cyclical not growth investments. Johnson and Johnson is a growth stock. Keep talking though. Your verbal diarrhea is hopefully helping those who want to believe your nonsense finally see the fallacy in your wishful thinking. Wait, I know, let's invest in one of these stocks now for the long haul and watch another 25% reduction on our capital in the short run. <H>