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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonyt who wrote (23849)	8/3/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: bluejeans	Respond to of 32384

You wouldn't have left anyway Why would you post a falsehood?

To: tonyt who wrote (23849)	8/3/1998 7:03:00 PM
From: sdkaye	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 32384

Despite how the market might appear, I believe that fact is that we are already in a significant correction. Those of us in the more speculative shares are just the first to see it - and it looks ugly. In my view, we are seeing a marked retreat from "speculative" companies to "quality" - from those that are in a growth mode to those that are in a more stable earnings mode. Although I don't believe that this will fare any better over the next few months, there is significantly less "embarrassment" for an institutional investor to get caught holding GE or MSFT in a downturn than by being left holding a tranche of some unheard of stock. Despite all Henry's references to the media in which LGND is being reported, that is just what it is - a speculative stock. Albeit a good one! Look at how some great stocks are faring compared to their 12 month ranges - several industries: ITWO - now 23 « - Range 13 to 42 ¬ MANU - now 22 1/8 - Range 20 « to 66 3/8 AMAT - now 33 13/16 - Range 25 « to 54 3/16 VICL - now 11 - Range 10 5/8 to 19 INCY- now 32 3/4 - Range 29 13/16 to 51 ISIP - now 12 3/16 - Range 11 to 18 5/8 LGND - now 10 « - Range 10 7/8 to 18 3/8 The market is brutally efficient. It isn't saying that LGND is a worse company than before. It is just saying that at the current time, people are not queuing up to buy it. Supply and Demand - The price is in free-fall and I am not sure that we have seen the bottom. FWIW I am long warrants - big time for me. I thought that I was doing ok, I was averaging down below 8 after some excessive buys last fall and now look 4 «. Time to make a call - average down or bale out. If the market is going to get ugly, it might be a while before prices recover, even if all the clinicals are good. On the other hand, if it is just a cyclical bounce, then you could get on the wrong side of this big-time. You can even get it wrong if it is a big drop if the turnaround is quick. The question is if not in the market, then where. I have to be in the market. 6% on the long bond is just not going to do the job. And if so, at this juncture, what should I be invested in. All things considered, I would rather be in the above which are down say 40-60% from the top. I don't think any of the above companies are badly managed and all should be good in the medium term. If their underlying business plans come to fruition, all will generate solid returns in coming years. Bet on the business model and let the market take good care of itself - it will eventually. However, if you don't like the business model. In this case, you feel that there is a significant tendency of management to grow the business at the expense of the stockholder through highly dilutive deals then get out of the stock But do so because you don't like the model not because the stock is down. I still like the model. I believe that getting approval for minor markets is a safer route. The using the off label sales on the back of good phase II results in more critical markets e.g. Breast cancer. Focus on target markets such as oncology and franchise the rest to get cash to reduce the burn rate. Anyway that is my two cents worth. Good luck to all in the next few days - we all may need it.