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To: The Rancher who wrote (747)8/4/1998 6:12:00 AM
From: CharlieFox  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1461
 
Bankrupcy is a real possibility, IMHO. That's why I took the loss at 6 1/8. In the first place, the company is borrowing new money to pay off old debt. The prospectus on their $100 million note offering last year listed the purpose as "...to pay off indebtedness" as one of the reasons for the offering. And this, from the November '97 10Q:

"Following issuance of the $100,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the notes due 2002 (the "Notes"), the Company will be highly leveraged. As of September 30, 1997, after giving pro forma effect to the application of the estimated net proceeds from this offering of the notes, the Company's total indebtedness and stockholders' equity would have been $100.0 million and $139.1 million, respectively. On the same pro forma basis, the Company's earnings would have been sufficient to cover its fixed charges by $5.5 million and $13.8 million for the year ended December 31, 1996 and the nine months ended September 30, 1997, respectively. The Company's ability to make scheduled payments of the principal of, or interest on, its indebtedness will depend on its future performance, which is subject to economic, financial, competitive and other factors beyond its control."

Oh yes, Paine Webber converted *another* $1.5 million of these notes into stock last week at a huge loss. (That makes $10 million - or 10% of the original offering - so far.) Why would they do this if they thought the stock price was going to bounce back within the next 4 years, hmmmmm?

All this info is in the SEC filings on freeedgar.com