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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug M. who wrote (30284)	8/3/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: brian cranston	Respond to of 97611

Doug, I saw this posted on the Yahoo board. It seems to say there was some sort of call on-going. Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: Looking for Clues By James J. Cramer 8/3/98 12:12 PM ET Looking for strength in all the wrong places? That's what I feel like I am doing. My partner, Jeff Berkowitz, comes to me with a crafty thesis to buy the drugs, betting that the buyers of drugs -- the McKessons (MCK:NYSE) and AmeriSources (AAS:NYSE) -- were weakened by the Federal Trade Commission. We are on the Compaq (CPQ:NYSE) call and we like everything we hear -- but then again, we are long, so maybe we are hearing what we want. The action in retail is terrific -- but maybe we need retail to be weaker? It's that hope-springs-eternal thing again. When everything opens hideously and then does not go down, we try to figure out whether it is random buying, futures buying or actual buying. Is Coke (KO:NYSE) telling the truth? Or is Bristol-Myers (BMY:NYSE) telling the truth? Is Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE) right or is Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE) right? Why do I care about this stuff? Again, because this game is all about clues, taking them, finding them, exploiting them. We don't want to be fooled by strong futures buying into thinking that the bottom has been reached. But we also don't want to miss a bottom that may be caused by the massive gloom that envelops all who trade for a living. One thing that does not lie is the advance-decline line. And as long as that hangs out in this dubious almost-2-to-1 negative mode, all the positive clues are simple head fakes, designed to pull you in at a crummy level and cut your heart out later on. For us, Compaq is the ultimate "tell," meaning the stock that will forecast today's action. It is the one that is speaking positively as I write this. It is the one that is most relevant for today's action. Tomorrow? Whole different set of clues, whole new set of parameters. And maybe a pattern or two that lasts more than a day. I will post more when/if more information is given. b.c.