Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (4583)	8/4/1998 1:42:00 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78666

Jeffrey Bash: not sure if your comments about logic now of value investing refers to my post or just that I am one above you on the thread. And certainly some of my picks are not value stocks... heck, some of them aren't even logical --g--. I think I understand what you are saying, but it just doesn't work for me. If we are in a bear market for small-cap or value stocks, then anyone who tries to buy these at current prices is essentially trying to catch the falling knife. Pretty straightforward to say... whoa.. let's see what tomorrow brings... these stocks will continue to drop-- they've been dropping and they will continue to drop. My point is that with value stocks, I want to do what works. What is proven academically and empirically. I summarize this -- rightly or wrongly -- as buy value when you see value and you have a margin of safety. Not wait until I "feel" like it can't get any worse, or there's a 10% retrenchment in the DOW, or the internet stocks collapse, or interest rates drop/rise, or Elaine G. says to buy, or Buffett says now, or the stock is at the lowest level it's been in 20 years. I recall no -- zero --mention of any type of timing mechanism - associated with Buffett or Graham or some of the others. I will try to buy value when I see it. In the short run stocks fluctuate. If your name is SENIOR, or the name of some of the other guys on the thread, it SURELY SEEMS LIKE and MAYBE IS TRUE, that stocks will go down after you buy them. So prepare for it. Either set a mental sell stop, plan on buying more on the way down (isn't that the Buffett way?), or just steel yourself. If one is not going to buy in a bull market, and one also won't commit in a bear market...man, that really limits opportunities IMO. I have been in the position of watching many stocks wherein the odds favor continuing decline. Like tomorrow... the stocks I am buying I expect to go lower. (Why wouldn't they?--they've been steadily dropping.) Seemingly at the bottom point in their fall, they seem to have the most likelihood of further collapse (since all news is negative, none positive, can't see any progress). Therefore the tendency is to refrain from buying and to miss the turn. I say, it's much more profitable --maybe not so logical or so easy-- to BUY WHEN YOU SEE VALUE and hold, through the (inevitable) continuing drop, then sell at the fair value point. People who say, well, I'll just wait until it passes the low point and it begins its rise... I find that these people either miss the rise (it occurs too fast) or convince themselves that if they hold back, the stock will drop back to its lows, or they just lose interest in the stock. Somehow or another, IMO, they miss getting in and/or miss getting a gain. Of course we're all different and have different ideas and outlooks and goals. Someone posted here that some of these small/mid cap stocks are in the worst bear market since 1990. So, for me I say ---no, now is not the time to go on vacation... now is the time when the odds favor looking for, finding, and buying these stocks. JMO. Paul Senior