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Biotech / Medical : Guilford (GLFD) - Steadily Rising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve who wrote (238)	8/4/1998 8:10:00 AM
From: Dr. Bob	Respond to of 496

Small caps and biotechs are doing poorly all over. GLFD's decline is similar to that of most of the other small caps I hold - nothing remarkable there. Most biotechs (ENMD is a notable exception) do not soar until they have a drug nearing the end of phase III trials. In the meantime, the only way to value a biotech is the 8x R&D example that Michael Murphy uses, which is about where GLFD is. There have been many opportunities to buy this in the 16 - 20 range over the past year, so anyone whose basis is more than that is just unlucky, but hard to claim this stock hasn't held its value as well as its peers. Definitely have to buy this with a long term perspective, but with the idea that it could pop at any time, when/if a breakthrough is announced with one of the several areas they are working on. Is it going down further in the meantime? It could, but that's true of all of the other stocks I own, and the downside here is a lot less than some of the ones I have, IMO. Bottom line? I'd rather read the scientific reports than the analyst reports - they still tell me this company has tremendous upside, too, and I don't have to worry about how they came to that conclusion! Bob

To: Steve who wrote (238)	8/4/1998 10:07:00 AM
From: Juli	Respond to of 496

I would be careful about the guy on AOL. He has been posting the exact same message there for months, often two or three times in a row. I don't think there is any doubt that he is short and trying to drive the price down. He has been predicting $10 for at least 6 months. Jewel

To: Steve who wrote (238)	8/4/1998 11:59:00 PM
From: Quilty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 496

Steve, Thanks for the prompt, informative reply. A guy on Yahoo! has been an advocate of the GLFD short, too. I've scarcely been more frustrated by a holding than this one. It has me talking to myself. I've lost just a ton by averaging down, erasing my gains from 11. Tomorrow I'm devoting half my morning to this chronic problem. Cash is what, six bucks from here? Seems a bit overdone, given that we should have news on PARP, NALAADASE, and continued improvements from Gliadel. I've noted the same pieces (scraps) of biotech positives that you've found in the press. There is no Asian exposure to these names, but it seems highly unlikely small cap biotechs will rise in what has become a very ugly market. Remember that Barron's interview with Mark Lampert a few years back? That would be a real blessing. He's a big holder. I don't follow the puts on GLFD. It could be someone is shorting them, not buying them, thereby creating stock at a more interesting level. Must go to bed. Exhausted by the day. quilty