Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (13293)	8/4/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Gregg - you know, I always claim I do NOT believe in technical analysis (and would never let it affect any investment decisions I make), but when I read things like what you just wrote (would one prefer to purchase a car when car prices are rising?) (which is sort of along the lines of Warren Buffett saying it is just GREAT when something you have identified as a good "long" goes down and down and down in price) ... I realize I DO think there is some logic to the basic tenet of technical analysis -- when something is moving in price, MAYBE there is a good reason for it. The problem is that -- mixed in with the legitimate cases (e.g. -- I was short T-bill futures right before 8/1/90, because they had moved to a seemingly ridiculous spread to Eurodollar yields. Then, we all watched Iraq invade Kuwait. (I gave up on my short T-bills soon thereafter (at a loss)). I assume that the T-bill yields (around 7/30/90 - 7/31/90) were reflecting the buying interest of those with access to spy satellite photos and/or government "intelligence" briefings) -- are some "stupid" cases (YHOO comes to mind). So, I guess I am sometimes willing to dismiss a huge move in a market. I just don't think people should be told to treat a move in a security or commodity as probably a meaningless event. Jon.

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (13293)	8/4/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: j_b	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

I agree with you overall, but perhaps the housing market would be a better example than the car market, especially in the current Silicon Valley market. When the job market heated up in the valley, housing prices became somewhat obscene. The hype started, and people would bid the prices up even further (sometimes 50% higher than the original asking price), afraid of missing out on the appreciation potential. Of course, the upward spiral was so rapid that most people did miss, and the prices soon became unreachable for most people. The prices have since flattened out, and will most likely go through a rapid drop if/when the business cycle here in the valley hits a low point. Do people consider housing to be speculative? Most likely not, although there is some of that present. Will most housing appreciate over time? Yes, if you buy value to start with - get a good property in a good location with good property management. Of course, if you paid a ridiculous price to start with, you might never recoup your investment. The moral is...always buy good properties at a good price, whether they are stocks, businesses, or houses.

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (13293)	8/4/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: Asterisk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

I couldn't agree with you more. But I think that my basic statement is true. Those with the money generate the current pace/direction of the market. As far as fundamentals go I couldn't agree more that you need to do excessive due diligence before you even consider buying ANY stock but at the same time life is quirky. Here is what I mean by my statements. If anyone has ALL of their retirement money in the market in one stock they are a fool. It is my opinion, and I think that you would probably agree, that one needs to spread out their investment dollars. If you are a postal worker and only get paid a moderate income then you can take you chances in something risky in the beginning but in the later years you should probably pull back and invest in more stable stuff. This person does not have the extra capital to make up for a sudden plunge in the market. If you are a single engineer making a decent amount of money then you can take greater chances throughout your career and go for that pot at the end of the rainbow. Your income is probably large enough (at least most of the engineers I know make bank) that you can still have a comfortable retirement even if you hit a few bad notes. I guess my message is the following: Do your homework and invest in a company that has good fundamentals at a level that allows you to sleep at night. If you can afford to overextend, go for it but be aware that is what you are doing and be prepared for the consequences the next time that the Prez goes looking for a new girlfriend, the stock market crashes and your water heater blow up all on the same day!