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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (23182)	8/4/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Daniel Ray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

New paradigms and all . . . the markets are behaving as if a big dark cloud has suddenly appeared . . . or is it just the stochastic shock of reality recognition? As far as I know, war has not been declared. . . . Is it really zippergate that is causing people to sell? Makes about as much sense to me as basing your investment decisions on the O.J. trial. But down is the direction, one can't argue with that. It doesn't have the FEEL of a 'normal' correction. Best wishes and thanks for the insights

To: donald sew who wrote (23182)	8/4/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

8200, maybe 8000..I will sell my coupons and go in full blast. <eom>

To: donald sew who wrote (23182)	8/4/1998 1:32:00 PM
From: ratan lal	Respond to of 94695

Don I strongly believe that the market will bounce off that support, only have the bounce rally fail and head lower. This time be ready to act !!!! (ggggggggggg) Otherwise forget the market and lets just play chess. ratan

To: donald sew who wrote (23182)	8/4/1998 5:11:00 PM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

Several of you technical analysts have been predicting short-term rallies for the last couple of trading days. All rally attempts were met by very heavy, program-driven selling and then this today. Clearly some big players (institutions) have become sellers. I remember one of those self-important analysts explaining last year why the bull will go on for a while, but then went on to say that there will be a point when HE will push the sell button. Someone seems to have done that today. But is this really the prelude for a significant correction? SPX at a critical support level? I don't think so. I think there is still too much bullishness and not enough fear in the market. Bearishness still seems to be a "buy" signal and buy-the-dips still in vogue. The dipsters need to lose some real money before they give up. I am still expecting a strong counter-rally (40 - 50 points?), possibly starting on Friday after the employment report (any report can be given a positive spin and the market is begging for some relief). When this rally fails, and critical support levels are tested again, everything will be set up for a typical 2 1/2 day crash (one day preparing the crash, the main day of panic selling, continued on the third but ending in a strong rebound). A crash needs a technically weak market + a triggering event. If I remember right, the 87 correction was blamed by some on the Bundesbank raising interest rates by 1/4 % to weaken the dollar. What could it be this time? 1. Monica: I don't think so. When Clinton confesses, I would rather expect a relief rally. It would be a different story, if impeachment proceedings were initiated and Clinton not resign immediately, but fight on. 2. Asia: good candidate. Nikkei below 14000 or a Chinese devaluation should do it. 3. Fed raising interest rates: very unlikely, Greenspan is bluffing. The real problem may be deflation rather than inflation. Other dark-horse candidates: Russia, Iraq,... Anyway, what are peoples thoughts for the next few days? I have not yet decided how to play it tomorrow. Take profits on my short-term puts and reverse for the counter-rally, or go for the significant correction right away. Good trading to all, Phil

To: donald sew who wrote (23182)	8/5/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

Don, I'm with you all the way now on rallys being minimal and brief for the upcoming forseeable future. I know I said Wednesday afternoon might be a time to look for a sizeable rally, but a reevaluation of the longer term charts says "no", it won't happen... At least not like I was expecting earlier. I've recently come to the same conclusion that Bobby has. I now believe we have indeed finished the cycle 5th wave from the October '97 lows. This of course means that the decline we have begun 12 trading days ago will be even more devastating in the short term than my prior stated reads have allowed for. My current market outlook is that we're in a 3rd wave down of this 1st wave down of A, and we will see no relief rallys of any significance until we complete this 1st wave down of A. This could be another week to 10 days minimum, and could easily take the major indices down another 6 to 8 %. This is not a garden variety correction...It is a killer with staying power, the likes of which have not been seen since '66 or '29. I hope everyone reviews their portfolio at this time and addresses the need for hedging/risk reduction at this time. Regards, David