To: Venkie who wrote (55944 ) 8/4/1998 1:37:00 PM From: Mohan Marette Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
Shake,rattle and roll-Worry of the day = Earnings jitters-You worried? Excerpts from the 'experts' Source: NBR 8/3/98 --------------------------------------- Analysis Of The Latest Economic Reports PAUL KANGAS: With me now to discuss the latest reports in the economy and what they might be telling us is Mark Serlin, economist with BridgeNews. Welcome back, Mark. MARK SERLIN, ECONOMIST, BRIDGENEWS: Thank you. KANGAS: Last Friday's second quarter Gross Domestic Product report showed only 1.4 percent growth compared to a robust 5 1/2 percent first quarter growth. And then today the National Association of Purchasing Management Index posted its second straight monthly reading below 50, which suggests a contracting economy. Is that what's going on here, a contracting economy? SERLIN: No, not at all Paul. We're just seeing some weakness in the manufacturing sector. Actually as far as the GDP report goes, if you exclude the negative impact of net-exports and inventories, the report was exceptionally strong. Manufacturing sector should do better in the near future with the GM strike resolved, and we could have some more inventory rebuilding. So the manufacturing sector, while Asia's holding it back, we have these other factors that should be supportive. KANGAS: And of course, this Friday we'll have the July unemployment report coming up. What are you looking for there? SERLIN: Well, it'll be a stronger report, but again, you have to exclude the manufacturing sector and that's not because it's not important, but we know it's going to be depressed. Overall, I'd say if you take out manufacturing, the increase of about 270,000, maybe some uptick in the unemployment rate. But overall the domestic economy is exceptionally strong, and if you want to make a case, you could say that the Asia weakness is just an offset that will keep the Fed from having to hike rates in response to the strong domestic conditions. KANGAS: Well, some might say that the stock market's recent weakness might be forecasting a recession. You don't believe that. SERLIN: No, not at all. I mean there's no doubt the market is seeing a lot of damage, and it appears to be getting worse and there's no arguing with that. But overall, it's the inflation numbers that count. The economy's doing very well. The inflation's low, so over the longer run the odds are the stock market is going to come back. But there's no doubt stocks have taken a hit. As a matter of fact, the S&P 100 recently pulled into a broad sideways range. KANGAS: Right. SERLIN: And as we see more technical damage, I mean it's going to be harder to explain it away. The stock market and the economy don't have to go the same way. KANGAS: All right. Let's hope you're right and that market makes a snap back. Thanks Mark. SERLIN: Thank you. KANGAS: My guest Mark Serlin, economist with BridgeNews. Tomorrow, Mario Gabelli, chairman of Gabelli Funds Incorporated on where the market is going from here. --------------------------------------- Source:MarketWatch CBS "At its session low of 8,562.23, the barometer stood 8.6 percent off its July 20 record intraday high of 9,367.84. "This is the most oversold the market has gotten since April 4, 1994," said Ralph Bloch, chief market analyst at Raymond James & Associates. "Before any low can be made you're going to have to have a rally and a testing period. "The damage is so massive that the odds strongly favor a lengthy period of rebuilding," he said. "The highs for the year have been seen and we're just hacking over where the low is going to be."cbs.marketwatch.com