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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Feldman who wrote (30542)	8/4/1998 4:19:00 PM
From: cardcounter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

I was hoping my trial membership would expire before I got asked any of the tough questions. Here's a stab at it. Keep in mind that I've been looking at and using technical analysis for less than a year. So, some of your questions would be better addressed by the TA threads or other sources. Furthermore, I haven't had enough time to drink away the parts of my brain that still think fundamentally. my answers are very chart oriented (simplistic) here and I'm leaving out some of the other TA tools that I use..so I'll spare you the TA mumbo jumbo.. I don't trade index futures/options, but I do find that indexes serve as a very good barometer for the some of the stocks I trade in (no duh). So, I'd like to have a general idea of where the market is going and where I can find some decent buying opps and avoid buying into the top.. >>Do you sell as soon as the market goes below 8800? I closed most of my stuff out this morning (which isn't much since I'm a poor student) and took the money off the table. I felt the market crossed a significant support that would trigger more selling.. >> What is the strong volume that you look for? pple use different moving averages on their volume histograms, I use a 50 day... so, if a move occurs with strong volume (above the moving average--the more the better).. I would consider that move to be significant..or indicative. >> Do you buy nothing until the Dow hits 8500? 8400--8500 is my guestimate for the new bottom. So, I'll stay out of the market till then (I'll gamble with some OTC:BB to keep from getting bored). Hopefully enough bearish sentiment will build up... pple will throw in the towel, and then others will jump in ... and take this thing back up to around 9K by year end... or 10K if you worship Ralph A. +++I just looked at the market... ouch... ok, I don't think my guestimate will be the bottom now... so I'll let the real TA gurus pick the bottom (see excerpt)++++ >> How long do you have to wait before you know if has held at 8500? I won't consider a "V" pattern (where the index dips and then quickly springs back up) to be a true bottom. I might step into some positions if I saw several days of congestion (basically, a few days of stagnation ) >>Does it have to go below 8500 before you know it has withstood this level? to withstand a support level, the index can come close, even break, to this point but not significantly penetrate the support... again I'm looking for some congestion at a historically (last 8months os so) low point that tells me this thing ain't going any lower... so the market falls as it did today, and then it levels out at a certain point... Thats the bottom I'm lookin for.. Here's a slightly different take .. >>A technical analyst by trade, Ralph Acampora believes that a key barometer for how the market will fare is the June low of 8269. If the market falls below this number, explains Acampora, things could be okay. "But if we stay above that number, it's possible that we could have a downside of 15% to 20%." That would take the Dow down to the 7400 to 7900 range. >>At that point, says the pundit, the market would be at an ideal entry point like the one the market hit in November 1994. "And that would make me very, very bullish." if you're interested with learning about/using TA for trading individual stocks, then I would recommend that you check out Gary Smith at www.thestreet.com (you can get a free 30 day trial membership)... anyway read his column archive ---the "technician's take" XXXXXXXXXXXX unrelated note: RUN FOR THE EXITS!!! just kidding.. I'm glad I'm not in this s*** right now. The only thing thats gone good for me this week is that my dumbest investment ever turned out to be a winner today (it got bought out). I bought ZEI, at the beginning of the summer, because I like one of their subs--EnerZ corp (a customer of the company I'm interning with), and I heard all this great stuff about dereg and utilties... Long story short. If I get over this cold (not market related), I'm taking that $600 bucks to Shreveport this weekend where I'll personally kick Jack Binions and Horseshoe Casino's collective ass on the blackjack table.... or I'll just end up supporting Louisiana's crappy roads program..