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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carter Patterson who wrote (13315)	8/4/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Carter: I may be many things...good and bad...but one thing I am not is a market timer. I believe that Qualcomm's earnings will grow rapidly for the foreseeable future and I believe that the net present value of those earnings is worth at least $100/shr (transactionally) today. In the world that I live in, collecting an excellent, growing asset at sixty cents on the dollar is very attractive. You say that can stomach 25% volatility...I do not think that you mean volatility...since you would be thrilled to have the stock go straight up by 25%. Your question can really be rephrased, "do I think QC will trade as low as $45 anytime in the near-future (i.e. 75% of today's $59 quote)". Framed that way, I really question whether you have the appetite to lose fourteen points on the stock..or you probably would not have asked the question (I am not trying to be a smart-ass, but this is serious and I want to be thorough). Again, in the world that I live in, QC would still be intrinsically worth $100/shr if its stock went to $50 or $40. Stock prices, in the short-run however, remain a function of corporate value AND investor psychology, with the latter being pretty rancid right now. Could the stock trade below $50...sure. Could the company get acquired in six months for $100/shr...it's possible. Bottom line is that my crystal ball cannot predict day-to-day, week-to-week investor psychology (and anyone who claims that THEY can is full of Bull poo-poo). If you can handle it psychologically, buy the stock and don't look at the damn quote machine for a year...and I'd bet you would be very happy. I hope that this is helpful. Best regards, Gregg