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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (1447)	8/4/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 2578

Hi john rosser; Thanks for remembering my predictions of 2 months ago... But the time to think of them has not come yet. The clues are only now becoming evident to those who are on the cutting edge of technology. Look back to the articles I posted giving links to articles involving "Systems on a chip". Those designs began this year. You cannot buy them yet. They will not be available to the consumer until another year or 18 months has gone by. Until then, things should remain pretty much as usual, and I expect to see some great quarters out of Dell. I have not now, nor have I ever attempted to predict Dell's revenues or earnings a quarter into the future. I know it seems strange that I am willing to predict things far off in the future, but am unwilling to hazard a guess at something that will happen soon (or is soon to be reported.) A difference of a couple percent in earnings can mean a lot to a stock over the short term, and small changes are pretty much impossible to analyze. In any case, wall street does a better job at it than I could pretend to. But wall street does not understand the details of integrated circuit design, it just isn't their area of expertise. Instead, they make predictions based on continuations of trends that are already obvious. And the trend in Dell's earnings and revenue is obviously up. Other than an analysis of the computer market, and what has happened to ASPs in the most recent month, they are just not capable of predicting what the costs of manufacturing are going to be in the year 2000. But my job for many years has been to design electronics for large scale manufacturing. I read the trade press, and a very important part of my job has been to predict what the costs of manufacturing will be for products that now are only on the drawing board. Then the sales and marketing people take my estimates and use them to figure out whether the company has a hope of selling the product for more than what it costs. Of course, I cannot predict exactly how much something is going to cost 2 years from now, but it is important to have some sort of idea now, and I do the best I can. It is a lot easier to figure things out on a comparative basis. It's sort of like the weather. Nobody knows precisely what the weather will be like 2 weeks from now, or 18 months from now. But it is easy to predict that it is going to be much hotter on 08/18/98 than on 02/04/00. Sure its been getting hotter for nearly six months, but some fundamental analysis suggests that the trend in temperatures is due for an important reversal. -- Carl