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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (13323)	8/4/1998 6:20:00 PM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Limtex: Emotions are the enemy of the intelligent investor. Greed makes people jump in at the wrong time and fear makes them jump out right when they should be buying. Fear is due to ignorance...and ignorance exists because many people view fundamental analysis as some kind of black art practiced only by those with 200 IQs. Which, of course, is absolutely wrong. My business partner is one of the most talented, brilliant people I have known in my career. And while a big IQ helps, his great strength lies not in some esoteric mathematical talent, but rather in his ability to look at an investment and determine what questions are relevant and what questions are noise. Does he "freak out" over some auction in Brazil, or a transitory connector problem, or because some competitor reports sloppy earnings? Absolutely not. His view of Qualcomm is really pretty simple. The technology works, the stuff has been deployed in something like forty countries with more to come, QC gets a royalty on everything that gets sold, management is extremely smart and will make the right choices with regard to the manufacturing strategy, they will do the right things over time to create shareholder value, AND the economic opportunity justifies a greater market value. Unless something changes...like the company's IPR being invalidated or a newer technology displacing CDMA or Irwin and Harvey get convicted of embezzlement...unless major elements to the investment thesis change, then his view is that all this day-to-day stuff is just noise. And it is wasteful to squander intellectual capital analyzing noise. What's the point? A skilled fundamental investor learns to quickly figure out the important questions and ignore everything else. Peter Lynch was famous for grilling company management for an hour or two and then immediately making an investment decision. In the absence of the "right questions" the world becomes a scary place...because you do not feel in control. When the stock declines, you immediately become convinced that something is terminally wrong; when the stock appreciates, you feel smart and vindicated. The emotional response however is in direct opposition to the correct investment decision. A good asset becomes better when it becomes cheaper; it becomes less attractive as it approaches fair value. Today the stock market did a modest imitation of Wal-Mart...it lowered prices on all the "store's" merchandise. Some of the merchandise was marked down because it was flawed and too expensive to begin with; some of the merchandise is now priced to sell..a real bargain. If the market continues to mark down the merchandise, the bargains simply get better...although the emotional context becomes progressively more difficult when your portfolio depreciates. Think about what you own and why you own it. If you really don't understand something, if the business is unfathomable or the price does make sense vis-a-vis the business value...sell it. If you understand it; if you know what it's worth and why, then shut off the damn quote monitor and relax. Best wishes my friend... Gregg

To: limtex who wrote (13323)	8/4/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: Sawtooth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

limtex: One of the most peaceful times in my life (investment-wise) was when I was a traveling bum; cruising the world for the sheer fun of it. I'd check the price of the stocks I owned every few months; whenever I'd come across an old WSJ or something. Never gave a thought to buying or selling. No internet, no real-time quotes, no MoneyLine. My stocks did very well. Now if I could only pull myself back into that same frame of mind. Funny thing is, neither approach is likely to affect the value of my holdings one cent. Good luck. It sucks for everybody (except those cruising the world with no access to that "vital market information".). ...Tim

To: limtex who wrote (13323)	8/4/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

*Japan and trade* "I don't like the sound of the word Asia and as far as I'm concerend the Japanese can either get with it or get stuffed I'm past worrying about their traditional behavioural sensibilities." Limtex, 'get stuffed' doesn't actually mean anything in this instance. Japan is a 400lb gorilla with huge SuperD holdings. Also, I'm not sure what is wrong with the sound of the word Asia. And I'm not sure what you think Japan's traditional behavioural sensibilities are. The idea that the USA or Alan Green$pan can order Japan around, or tell it to get stuffed is a little quaint. Certainly the USA can jump the SuperD money supply around, filling the SuperD with hot air if they like. They can launch a lot of nukes and turn Japan into a radioactive wasteland. They can blockade it. They can even jail or execute any Japanese DNA carriers within the USA who they can identify. They can put up tariffs against Japan. They can boycott their goods. They can vote in Congress for censure. Unfortunately for all those who would tell Japan what to do, none of it will benefit Mr and Mrs Average USA. They will manage their money supply, SuperD holdings and the rest of their bits and pieces as they see fit. Be careful of giving them gratuitous advice, with some bullying behind it, they might follow it. Just what does "...get with it..." mean in good old fashioned 3D reality? I was watching a television rehash of aspects of the second world war last night, the coming to power of Hitler from the first world war on. In the late 1920s the Nazis got about 2% of the vote and they had been trying for a few years already. By 1933 or whenever it was, they won a third of the votes and got into power with some help from others. The rest got very ugly until my Dad went over there in 1940 to put a stop to it all. Anyway, I heard there was a Smoot Hardley Act or some such in the USA earlier in the 20th century which resulted in the USA introducing serious tariffs after the 1929 crash and other protectionist measures. Germany suffered mightily during the depression and the millions of young who were feeling rather dispossessed decided to get repossessed. My conjecture is that the enactors in the USA of the tariffs and other trade barriers in the USA precipitated a major depression instead of what would have been a minor one. If there had not been such depression in Germany, which stemmed in part from USA tariff actions, there would probably not have been such backing for some tough guys. So, I'd take it easy demonizing Japan. There is little the USA can do. Bullying won't help. Some friendly, and I do mean friendly, advice might be accepted. Other than that, all you can do is hope the benefits of global free trade are recognized by all and that politicians understand any disruptions will be bad. Korea, as predicted, is getting tidier, with financial input from USA and other companies in exchange for a piece of the action. Hyundai and Dacom are bailing from Globalstar. All very easy peasy really. Sorry to make a mountain out of a couple or frustrated comments, but I didn't like the trend of them. Meanwhile, don't wait for the natural home of $40 something. This will be another of the buy the bottom drops which we've seen so many times. This time it is the whole market. In the absence of any real reason, it must be just another of the 15% 'clean out the careless' challenges, using 'Asia' as a paper tiger to start the stampede. Let it stew a week or two! Mqurice