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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yikes who wrote (10973)	8/4/1998 8:49:00 PM
From: Brian K Crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

<< Comparing this quarter to previous year (FY97 Q4), the number of new subscribers is about the same. But in FY97 Q4, AOL was still recovering from the flat-rate-pricing fiasco. So the same number of new subscribers indicates a slow-down. >> In the conference call, Steve Case commented that he had expected no net growth in subscribers at all during the quarter, due to the price increase that went into effect. Also, marketing was purposely held down while version 4.0 software was completed. Total marketing expenses were only about 12% of revenues, down from 20+ % recently. We can expect the marketing machine to crank back up. I see nothing to make me want to sell my shares. Brian

To: Yikes who wrote (10973)	8/5/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Gaffa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

I don't see much seasonal effect on AOL subscriber growth. Comparing FY97 Q1 and FY98 Q1, new subscribers doubled. Comparing this quarter to previous year (FY97 Q4), the number of new subscribers is about the same. But in FY97 Q4, AOL was still recovering from the flat-rate- pricing fiasco. So the same number of new subscribers indicates a slow-down. FY Marketing Sub. Growth Acq. Cost ------- --------- ----------- ----------- 97 Q1 $150M 414,000 $362 <--pre flat fee 97 Q2 $151M 1,200,000 $125 <--flat fee, holiday season 97 Q3 $93M 236,000 $393 <--state mandated halt of marketing 97 Q4 $100M 600,000 $166 <--summer 98 Q1 $98M 821,000 $119 98 Q2 $97M 1,267,000 $76 <--holiday season 98 Q3 $84M 1,148,000 $73 <--post Christmas 98 Q4 $95M 665,000 $143 <--summer You may choose not to see the seasonal effect, but it shows right there in the data you posted. I guess it's simply a perspective thing.