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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (5425)	8/5/1998 12:49:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Peter, The only thing keeping us from a major economic downturn is China. Yes China. Most of Asia is in serious negative growth. Thankfully CHina is not only holding up but growing and when the an ecomomy that size is growing it can soak up al lot of comodities. Japan is in a fog. Should China slip the dominos will really fall. I believe they will hold on and bail out the entire region. Many of the smaller biotechs have already been deserted by hot money and the majority of remaining investors are long term. However if redemptions hit watch out. No signs of that hapenning. Most of the money has just gone to the sidelines waiting to see what happens. It's bargain hunting time. V1

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (5425)	8/5/1998 11:52:00 AM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

I'd say biotechs are not too far from the point where they stop going down even as the market plunges. Maybe another 20%??? Looking at my portfolio, winners like SEPR will obviously get hurt much more than losers like NRGN. IMHO, China is close to cracking, making the Asian problems worse. To add to the Asian worries, one must remember Y2K. Last fall, we had Asia down a lot and the U.S. down a little. This year, I think we get Asia down a little and the U.S. down a lot (30-40%???). What interests me about the macro picture is that the market closely resembles the late '60s and early '70s, but the economy resembles the '20s. That leads me to a quandry as to what sort of result we will have. I still lean away from the Great Depression view. At least your crystal ball isn't as shifty as Acampora's. <g> Tom