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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StaggerLee who wrote (10979)	8/4/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Respond to of 13594

Thread, whoever listened to the CC, please post your comments (along with your status, long or short) TIA MileHigh

To: StaggerLee who wrote (10979)	8/4/1998 10:44:00 PM
From: B.REVERE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

[Briefing's take]--basically as market goes tomorrow, so will AOL, the open won't be pretty but I look for a turnaround at noon, as bargain hunters start picking up the pieces. AMERICA ONLINE (AOL) 110 -6 AOL beats consensus estimates with a report of $0.23 per share, exceeding by four cents most estimates of 0.19. However, the "whisper" number was for 0.24. Revenue was $792.3 million, a 67% increase over same quarter last year, and 14% sequentially. Last quarter's sequential rise was 17%, and the previous several quarters have been rising. The slow down in revenue growth rate may be of concern to some investors. Of major interest to us, however, is the growth of non-subscriber revenue, especially e-commerce revenue. This number needs to be watched carefully as it is the key element of the "portal" concept behind AOL's current valuations. Advertising and e-commerce fees rose to $83.1 million, an 87% increase over the prior year. This is still pretty small, as percentage of AOL revenue, but larger than all of Yahoo's revenues currently. Backlog of ecommerce and ad revenue, however, rose to $510 million on June 30. We need to do a little digging, which we haven't done yet, to determine if the backlog numbers are all contractual obligations, and when they will hit the bottom line. Membership numbers, although touted as the best fourth quarter ever, only brought the total to 12.5 million. Overall, the numbers will not be terrific for the stock, as AOL had blowout built into its stock price already. Missing the whisper number and the lower sequential revenue growth and membership numbers will probably be the focal point for investors tomorrow. But with today's last minute plunge (AOL was only down -2 just fifteen minutes before the close), it will be hard to tell tomorrow whether AOL's numbers or overall market conditions are driving the stock.