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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (12574)	8/4/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: llamaphlegm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Greetings all: Thought or two for the day. 1. Massive dilution. Massive (issuing 2.6 mm shares (or dumping them out of Treasury stock) either way). 2. Internet stocks were not particularly hurt byt he market meltdown. As a whole they held fairly well. Depressing bit for amzn bulls is that amzn did not outperform by much at all despite the 2 announced deals. 3. Do you maybe just think that internet stock investors (particularly money managers) are getting a wee nervous with fingers poised on the sell trigger finger? I would bet that they would. AOL taking some more time and NOT even reporting net income. 4. OK, if someone can set me straight and tell me whether AMZN is trying to use junglee to compete with other e tailers or with portals, I'd gladly construct what i think is a good argument explaining why it's dead meat in either case. It's pretty obvious in terms of a portal strategy (unless you want to convince me that they can wipe out whatever portal and or shopping services get set up by YHOO, MSN, AOL, NSCP, et al). The book, cd, video argument has been beaten to death here. 5. ANyone else see a desparate company? First the move into music which according to Bezos himself will not make the margins ever that books will (given the size of their losses/negative margin (i'm making that term up), that's probably a good thing).. Then a half assed move into videos. Suddenly a move into a reminder service / tracking down folks to stay in touch (does anyone really think that the bigger portals could not do this better???) and junglee. The latter is intriguing, if a little confusing. If it's meamt to add clients to amzn currently, it might be of some benefit (though I imagine a great deal of overlap already exists). If it's meant to be a first step into serving as a portal or even a shop bot, it's an admission that the business model of being a retailer (of any number of goods on the web) is a failure and amzn will now enter a new industry (i know, it's all on the internet, so doesn't that mean that it's the same industry? no moron analysts, it's not) -- acting as a shopping agent. Interesting choice, now amzn wants to be skiming off the top of other's transactions rather than having its associates skim off of amzn sales. Still, I'd not be hitching my horses to amzn v. yhoo, msn, nscp, aol et al. Those are even bigger on line brand names. Is amzn just trying to get better info on customers to sell it? Maybe. But no likely to make people happy. Ultimately, one thing seems clear to me. Net commerce is still retail. It's still going to be a cyclical business with fairly low margins. Most important, on line commerce is in its infancy and is highly turbulent. AMZN deserves credit for moving quickly if not with a clear purpose at every step. The question remains: Who will have the most money and resources to move quicly in 3 months, 6, or even 1 or 2 years??? Wht will on line commerce look like then? No one knows. AMZN has done well with the folks who are already on line. We all agree. What we seem to disagree on is the fact that bulls believe that amzn's "brand name" among the geek brigade (of which we're all members like it or not) is already established among the vast majority who are not yet on line. I would argue that it's not. More importantly, before making any "airy fairy" general arguments about amzn's future earnings, decide if it will be as a retailer or a bot. Then think about the competition. Even among the geek brigade, yhoo, msn, aol et al have better brand name. Some of the recent moves smack of desparation and a lack of focus. TO the person who claimed that this is simlar to aol developing in ways not foreseen -- it's not. AMZN -- the company which is theoretically already stretched thin by limited bandwith -- is switching racetracks (and horses) too midstream. Hard to ride two at once especially with so many other thoroughbreds around. Even more bearish than yesterday -- LP PS From CBS MArket watch "The most bullish analyst ever" -- all about our pal Benjy What are not currently great value, according Mr. Benjamin, are Yahoo and Amazon. Despite his bullishness and Buy recommendations, Mr. Benjamin considers Yahoo at least two quarters ahead of itself on an advertising-revenue basis, while Amazon remains overvalued under any current valuation metric. "Amazon has 3.1 million customer accounts with repeat orders representing 63 percent of sales," said Mr. Benjamin. "Unfortunately, even with earnings of $1 to $2 per share, it still doesn't justify the stock price." So buy, he says, but only when you get a good price. When will that be? Your guess is as good as ours. Then again, no one ever said Internet stocks would keep going up forever.

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (12574)	8/4/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Rd,The senior investment analyst for DLJ came on MoneyLine last night and told Lou Dobbs straight faced that he anticipates the DOW will break 10,000 by years end.> If your living was based, on stocks going up, wouldn't you tell them what you, wanted them to hear?.

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (12574)	8/4/1998 9:54:00 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

It's Ralph Acamporra who is predicting Dow 10,000 too by yrs end. Now he's predicting a 20 percent drop--tops --on the Dow . Well he may be right and maybe wrong. I don't see panick selling though, it has been orderly and their is bound to be more of a follow through of the same in the morning. However, i don't think the Bull will not end here. I think this slow down in corporate profits is over blown and most of this is bearish sentiment. It will slow from last yrs. pace, but they will come in ok, 7 to 8 percent on whole is what most economist have been predicting for the yr. I guess that leaves out an interest rate hike for now--thank God.