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Biotech / Medical : Eli Lilly -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter chin who wrote (285)	8/5/1998 8:19:00 AM
From: James Baker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 642

Lilly's Evista Approved for Marketing in European Union Two-Year Data Show Osteoporosis Drug Reduces Fracture Risk, Results to be Presented in September INDIANAPOLIS, Aug. 5 /PRNewswire/ -- Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY - news) announced today that it has received approval from the European Commission (EC) to market Evista(R) (raloxifene hydrochloride) in 15 European Union member countries for the prevention of vertebral (spine) fractures in postmenopausal women at increased risk for osteoporosis. ''Lilly is proud to play a role in bringing the first selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) for osteoporosis rapidly to approval status in the European Union,'' said Gino Santini, president, SERMs and skeletal products division, Lilly Research Laboratories. ''The EC approval reaffirms that Evista protects postmenopausal women against osteoporosis, but also shows that Evista prevents painful fractures associated with the disease.'' The European Union approval marks the first regulatory review of data from the ongoing Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) study, a clinical trial designed primarily to evaluate the effect of Evista on spine fractures and bone mineral density in women who have osteoporosis. These interim (two-year) data were evaluated in addition to data from osteoporosis prevention studies. The MORE study enrolled 7705 women in 25 countries worldwide. Updated analyses from the MORE trial will be presented at the European Congress on Osteoporosis, scheduled to take place in Berlin, September 11-15, 1998. These two-year interim results are expected to show that Evista produced a statistically significant reduction in the risk of spine fractures (by 38-52 percent) in osteoporotic women. Evista is now available in seven countries for the prevention of postmenopausal osteoporosis: the US, Mexico, Brazil, Israel, Argentina, Lebanon and Peru. Product registration is pending in 32 other countries worldwide. Data from the MORE trial will be submitted to other regulatory bodies for their review. Lilly is a global, research-based pharmaceutical corporation headquartered in Indianapolis, Ind., dedicated to creating superior healthcare solutions in order to help people live longer, healthy and more active lives. Women's health is a key area in which the company is focusing its efforts. Full prescribing information (US version) for Evista is available at www.evista.com.

To: peter chin who wrote (285)	8/7/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: Frank Stein	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 642

Peter: Your post is full of too much doom and gloom..... over the years, there were always "concerns" over competition for prozac....Yet, Prozac continues to be one of the most profitable drugs ever.....Prozac allowed LLY to re-build itself from the ground up....New facilities and extensive research collaborations in lower-tier biotech companies such as Centocor....LLY's pipeline which generated Evista, Zyprexa, ReoPro etc can be directly attributed to Prozac's success....A similar situation is occurring with Warner Lambert (Lipitor)..... Zyprexa will be even better to LLY than was Prozac....Zyprexa will nurture a fruitful pipeline just as Prozac did....While Evista is clearly now deemed a disappointment, So was BMYs Taxol....Analysts hyped Taxol just as they did Evista....and they hated BMY for its disappointment....but now....MANY MANY LIFETIMES LATER ....Analysts are OK with Taxol and BMY has been redeemed in the eyes of the analysts.....Evista May not be a "prozac", but it will do just fine.... Do not put much faith in the STATS spewed forth by the analysts you referred to....There is very little "ANALYSIS" done on wall street these days....(if there was, then LLY would not have run-up so much prior to Evista launch....analysts would have placed realistic expectations on it...Wall Street is dominated by momentum players...who do not hesitate to alter their views ...AKA estimates, projections etc....Analysts change their estimates more often than i change clothes.....their estimates are often wrong despite "guidance" from the company ) Given the recent market sell-off, it is encouraging to note that LLY did not even drop down to the low 60s...this is in marked contrast to MRK, BMY, PFE... LLY will break out of the 60-70 range....and it won't be due to increased reveues etc....it will be due to a rumor about a new drug in its pipeline....rumor of a new application for Evista....positive clinical trial of some sort.... It is these rumors which will sway analysts to yet again change their numbers...Unrealistic dreams of future drugs and revenues will power LLY out of the 60-70 range... you bought LLY last year at the height of the Evista HYPE... LLY was overvalued back then.....Hold onto it...earnings are catching up to its price...it will treat you well.... Frank