To: Oeconomicus who wrote (12611 ) 8/5/1998 1:54:00 AM From: Mark Fowler Respond to of 164684
Bob, Ralph is a technician. I've never really like his calls they are late and he changes back and forth. However, Abby is more in the middle of the road type of bull, a genius, well i think so. I agree with most of her predictions and have been on here side so far. She is saying to those who listen to stay the course. And yes, Ralph did see something in his work. His words exactly "Yesterday, the NYSE breadth was down more than 2 to 1; the number of new 52 week lows exceeded 300 and the Russell 2000 was down over 6 points. This combination along with a late sell-off in the DJIA put added pressure on what already is a very weak market. Currently, we are oversold and due for a technical rally. But, before we can state that any advance from these levels is sustainable, we must see evidence (such as good breadth) for at least several days. " However, he remains bullish long term. I agree, the A/D line has been on the decline in the broader market indexes, while the Dow 30 has advance which at some point would be unsustainable. That said, the market was ripe for correction. As the market hit certain levels, there was a significant amount of program trading and a complete lack of institutional buying. But didn't see institutional investors liquidating their positions. There will probably be some panic selling in the morning. There's still enough fundamental confidence in the U.S. economy and low interest rates for us to remain in a trading range between 8000 and 9300 until the end of the yr. After the selling i think we will see a rally back up. Earnings aren't as bad as the press makes it out to be. And I don't see a bear market coming on, but these 20 percent annual returns in the general market are gone. It's going to be more of a stock pickers market from now on or for sometime. Asia's problems will take longer to correct and how that situation develops is not clear yet, but i'm cautious. With the mounting trade deficit and exchange rates out of wack this could be a prelude to world trade imbalances that could snowball into trade wars. If i see this starting, i'll know it'll be getting close for a time to cash out. Right now i'll stay the course. I did cut my margin back, though, in here short term. Geez, i went over to planetAll to see what Amzn bought and tried to register here's the message i got: Welcome to PlanetAll! We are experiencing unprecedented demand for new registrations, and our servers are too busy to sign you up just now... If you fill in the information below, we will send you an EMail message, reminding you to come back soon. Hmm...