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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (4606)	8/5/1998 12:41:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78666

On NH's finance portfolio, that's a question I should have asked them long ago. I'll put in a call tomorrow morning, and bug me if I don't post an answer. And as for the previous post to me, I have no opinion on any of those stocks. Tomorrow should be interesting. Jim

To: Madharry who wrote (4606)	8/5/1998 2:46:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78666

re: question yesterday about NH. At least three or four of us own this puppy. I talked to a senior executive today, and they are just baffled by how the market is treating this industry. They see flat sales in the next year or so, but they absolutely do not see a massive downturn coming. Pricing has firmed up a little bit since Deere and Case called a truce in late June. As for finance receivables, he said companies in the tractor industry get in trouble when they get greedy and lend outside of agriculture. Farmers tend to be good credit risks, with land value backing the collateral and the government often willing to bail them out in a crisis. If problems were to develop, it would probably be residual value assumptions. If the market were to fall apart, used tractor pricing falls and the assumptions grounding some loans could turn out to be overstated. New Holland is about as conservative as a management can be, and my instinct is that that conservatism extends into their credit portfolio. Deere is also rock solid. Worry about Agco. Hope that's a little bit helpful. Bottom line is that management thinks their stock, as well as Deere, is very very cheap. And there is no reason to question this management team's intergrity or ability.