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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (61837)8/5/1998 1:26:00 AM
From: Paul Engel  Respond to of 186894
 
Jacob - Re: "They just elected a leader with a reputation for doing nothing."

Seems to work in the U.S.

Re: " The wisest investor of all (Buffet) is buying silver and bonds,"

I recollect hearing that Buffett has unloaded his silver - at a loss, probably, and has sold off his bonds recently.

Paul



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (61837)8/5/1998 7:53:00 AM
From: GRANOLA  Respond to of 186894
 
Jacob,
Good list. But remember, if the market looks like a good short, the opportunity to short is probably (close to) being over...given the risk of shorting, you may be better off just watching for the bottom and buying more long term holds on the way back up, once the news momentum turns to the cup half full. just my opinion, GR



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (61837)8/5/1998 2:06:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Jacob,

Re your list of negatives:
1. market PE off the top end of the scale For the most part, this has been confined to the large caps and internUt plays
2. P/S, P/B: same thing Same thing
3. dividend yield at historic lowsCompanies more than ever are buying back their stock rather than paying out divs which are taxed at a high rate of 39.6%. Would you prefer 28% or 39.6%? Efficient use of capital

6. market breadth narrowing to almost nothing. Nifty 50.See comments for #1
7. profit growth grinding to a halt.Again, this is largely confined to the large caps or those with significant asian exposure.
8. overcapacity in numerous manufacturing sectors (not just semis). Unless you think people will never buy oil or DRAM again, you probably shouldn't buy stocks.
10. They just elected a leader with a reputation for doing nothing.
So did we, twice!
11. the Fed says (clearly and repeatedly) that the next move will be to tighten. They will
do this pre-emptively, because they're much more worried about inflation than the
slowing economy (or deflation).
Jawboning. They cannot tighten a slowing economy when the second larget economy is in recession, as you clearly pointed out.
12. The Fed chairman also says banks are lending money that won't be repaid, and
investors are buying stocks that won't go up.
The ones he's referring to are probably buying AMD<GGG>.

BK