To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (49294 ) 8/5/1998 9:16:00 AM From: SE Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58727
I knew you would figure out I wasn't talking about Alan, however, I did not want any confusion to exist for anyone as I respect Alan. I am taking a look at the PREM/TICK/TIKI indicator I had followed in the past to see if there is any indication of a capitulation. On first blush, it appears that there is. PREM -2.50, TICK -1600 or greater and TIKI -30 all within 10 minutes of each other. I am going to check my post on the OCT situation in a minute, but I think that at first blush that is enough for a buy signal and I believe (from memory) that we had the same situation during that tanking....a drop, a PREM/TICK/TIKI indication and then a rally with an up PREM/TICK/TIKI indication and then the real tanking. The post:exchange2000.com In that time frame the OEX dropped from 465 to 445 (4.3%) in two trading days. This time it has dropped 550 to 525 (4.5%). It rallied back to 465 over the next two days and then tanked to 410 by the 28th. I think that if this situation is similar (and it really isn't due to the market conditions) I would expect a pretty substantial bounce from here over the next few days. However, as I stated, it is not the same so I don't know quite what to make of it, however, the readings we got yesterday near the close are substantial enough to support some type of a bounce, albeit maybe a short lived one. I suggest up in the morning then flat for part of the late morning, noon hour time and then who knows. Either we go out flat today, or the sellers really come in and the afternoon is a blast! I will know more after it happens. -Scott PS - No I do not think this is the bottom. We are not at the bottom and I don't know when that will come, but chances at this point are sooner rather than later for a short term bottom.