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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (6332)	8/5/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Thought I'd post my response to some questions someone sent me... Unless the plan is changed, on 300 shares, you will receive 300 shares of each of the 12 new companies, or a total of 3600 shares. Their initial listing prices ought to add up to the TBR price the day before they list. To complicate matters, its likely they don't all list at once. It looks as if 8-9 will list initially but that could change also. What will likely happen is this...if Telesp were the first to list, and it listed at $25, you receive 300 shares of Telesp and still hold TBR whose value will be offset by $25. So if it were at 120 before Telesp were split off, it would be at $95 the day after. FWIW, a handful of the new companies should appreciate rapidly as soon as they list, while a few others may go down. It is speculated that the gainers will offset the losers significantly. If you would like, I have some reports that describe the 12 companies with year end price targets etc. Just post me a private message with your email address if you would like a copy. You need to have Adobe Acrobat to read them, but this can be downloaded for free off the net if you don't have it. If you're running windows 95, it's probably already installed. Regarding the stock selling off...I'm afraid a continuation of the mentality of lumping Brazil into the Asia/Russia boat. The concern is that if China, Japan or Russia devalued, that it could set off a chain of devaluations that might include Brazil. I don't see that happening, but you never know. Brazil is much stronger than they were last year when the Asia crisis hit...the TBR sale just adds to that strength. When this stock decides to run, it'll run. Analyst interest in TBR has been very high, with most 12 month price targets over $160 and some as high as $220. I believe the analyst you saw was from Paribas, I large international firm. "ON" at least in the case of TBR describes the common shares. TBR has both common and preferred shares, as will all 12 of the new companies. The common shares encompass the voting rights, while preferred do not. Common shares only trade in Brazil, and these were what the government owned primarily. US ADR's are preferred shares only, as will be all the spinoffs.

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (6332)	8/5/1998 12:05:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

TBR just seems to be doggin' it today. Waiting on news? Seems to be slightly underperforming the Bovespa. Seems that most are gunshy at this point. We need some significant news on the listings! sf

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (6332)	8/5/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil shrs poised for lower prices on Asia falls Reuters, Wednesday, August 05, 1998 at 08:30 SAO PAULO, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Brazilian shares were poised for a weaker opening on Wednesday as lower closings on Asian bourses and sharply lower prices on European exchanges were seen weighing on local stock markets, brokers said. "I think we have no other choice to but to accompany overseas bourses," said a trader at Banco Santander. "But volume would probably be low, as investors stick to the sidelines until world markets calm down a bit," he added. On Tuesday, the Bovespa index (INDEX:$BVSP.X) of the 58 most-traded stocks ended down 5.32 percent at 9,860 points. Trading was heavier than normal at an estimated $689 million. The Bovespa was down 3.3 percent on the year by Tuesday's close. Brokers said the index was unlikely to recover the 10,000-point mark in the near future. "Most investors would be glued to price performances on Wall Street once the session opens there," one trader said. Stock analysts in New York said Wall Street shares could attempt a rebound early in the session after a 3.4 percent slide Tuesday, but it would probably give way to selling. Meanwhile, the trading volume in Sao Paulo was seen picking up by the week's end as investors prepare for next week's settlement in the Bovespa index futures, brokers said. Bluechip acitivity on Tuesday: Telebras (SAO:TELB4) down 6.47 pct at 127.20 reais Petrobras (SAO:PETR4) down 3.31 pct at 237.00 reais Eletrobras (SAO:ELET6) down 4.44 pct at 34.40 reais Vale do Rio Doce (SAO:VALE5) down 4.20 pct at 22.80 reais Sao Paulo stock exchange's Bovespa index of the 58 most traded shares: * Tuesday: down 5.32 pct at 9,860 points * Week: down 7.9 pct * Month: down 7.9 pct * Year-to-date: down 3.3 pct SELIC (open): 2.125 pct Dollar/Real (open): 1.1671 per dollar ***** YESTERDAY'S STORIES 1/8 1/4SUR 3/8 SPOT REAL QUOTES <BRBY> BOVESPA STOCK INDEX (INDEX:$BVSP.X) ELECTRICAL ENERGY INDEX <.IEE> BRAZILIAN ADR PRICES <BR/ADR> BRAZILIAN BRADY BOND PRICES <2LDO> BRAZILIAN DOLLAR FLOW HISTORY <BRFLOW> Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service