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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clean who wrote (833)	8/5/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Respond to of 34857

Most people expected the mobile phone sales to increase globally by 35-40% in 1998. Against this backdrop Nokia's 2Q 50% growth would reflect substantial market share gains, but nothing extravagant. However, if the overall market is only growing by 30%, having 50% growth rate implies massive share gains. Nokia's first half growth rate was 41% and over 65% of the annual mobile phone sales take place during the second half (back to school sales & Christmas). Nokia only needs to hit 55-57% growth in the second half to meet 50% growth target for the entire year. This is really conservative: right now Nokia is on target to hit 60-70% growth in the second half, bringing the sales growth for entire year to perhaps 55-60%. Compare this to 30% growth Dataquest is forecasting for global sales! This is just one prediction, but Dataquest is my favorite firm (after Yankee Group). They've been right before. Now it may all hinge on just how badly Motorola screws up their product introductions. If the target dates for launches slide, models that have been postponed for a year turn out to be obsolete, prices are too high or production ramp-ups are slow Nokia should own the Christmas. Mot has managed all four of these above-mentioned snafus in recent years... I'd say they will hit at least two out of four and that should be enough. Tero