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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Feldman who wrote (30609)	8/5/1998 4:00:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

Dave, I think it has to do with personality. I don't like Ralphie's oily way of doing business. But, I like him much better than Abby Joseph, where it is just not what she says, but her, personally. I have a grudge from the 1970s and she has said nothing since then to make me think she has gotten any better. And an elephant never forgets. <G> MB

To: Dave Feldman who wrote (30609)	8/5/1998 4:55:00 PM
From: cardcounter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Killing 2 stones with one bird... 1) technical analysis >>There is a certain irony in Acompora's analysis (i.e., if market falls below 8269, we should be OK, but watch out if it stays above). Obviously, if the market doesn't fall below 8269, it can't fall 15-20% Or am I missing something. RA was talking about the short term market outlook... he's anticipating a market correction, and he presents 2 scenarios.. The preferred scenario, is pullback in which the market falls down around 8269, then a buying opportunity will be present, and a rally would ensue from this base. On the other hand, if the market hovered above this level (last week...8800-9000) during this interim, then we'd have to face a harsher correction, thus falling down to 7400 or so.. "" If the market falls below this number (8269), explains Acampora, things could be okay. "But if we stay above that number, it's possible that we could have a downside of 15% to 20%." That would take the Dow down to the 7400 to 7900 range."" check da numbers, if the market goes down like scenario one, then we're only looking at 6% correction.... if it continues to hover at current levels (8800) the we are going to be facing a much harsher correction to the tune of 15-20%.. >>savaging RA the way they did Elaine Garzarelli when he/she turned bearish IMO Elaine got kicked because she couldn't run money worth a s***... and in some cases she couldn't read/interpret her own data correctly.... Finally, she was arrogant and I enjoyed seeing her "brilliant" guru career come to a close.. 2) gambling for the record: I'm not throwing my money down a hole by playing blackjack at the casinos... Blackjack: house advantage is 0.40% to 0.45% (playing the basic strategy. This house advantage is based on a typical six deck game, double after split, dealer stands on soft 17, split any 2 pairs, no surrender... house advantage will vary depending on the exact rules). In my case, the house advantage is even less in that I count cards... (if you really perfect card counting, the advantage shifts to the player, about 0.5% up to 1.5%, and you can play blackjack for a living---which I don't plan on doing). So, this is the closest thing to a even money game that I've found. I find that gambling has many similarities to trading and I find blackjack/card counting to be a mentally stimulating exercise.. my support: stats approach to gambling I don't play the other games, nor the lottery. Finally, I'll be around... XXXXX MB2, I'll check out your article... offhand I see one problem with the thesis and your explanation on how the 'smart money' (whatever the hell that is) is followed by the TA's, and how most of the smarties are making it in the low volume co's--- most technical analysts won't touch a thinly traded market or stock... ideally , I would shoot for a stock with a 25-30K avg. daily volume.. also, I don't see the contradiction between weak from eff. markt. hypth and TA... TA's believe that markets are relatively efficient ... also, TA's believe that markets trend... should this be arbitraged away?? as a stronger form of efficient market hypo says.... I argue no to the extent that there isn't just one approach to TA, thus different TA's will interpret the same data/charts differently... game theory was phun in economics, but nowadays, i'm not too interested in learning anything that doesn't apply directly to making me money in the market/casino or my career investment banking/private equity... so I'll pass on the classics, art, fiction, music, etc.... as far as swearing off games of chance, read #2 ...