Bill; Thanx I went and registered and put in my Magic Ten,
and a couple others.
BTW the Magic Ten beat all major indexes today, and in spite
of the down turn in the market , from when I first started them
April 30th, they are still up 5.75% , we won't have a bear
market if they keep taht up. <G>
here they are
Symbol Last Trade Chg Value Change Volume Day's Range Mkt Cap P/E
^SPX 5:00PM 1081.43 +9.31 - +0.87% N/A 1057.35 1084.80 N/A N/A
^OEX 5:00PM 531.63 +5.99 - +1.14% N/A 518.68 533.48 N/A N/A
^IXIC 4:45PM 1788.20 +2.56 $0.03 +0.14% N/A 1750.81 1804.60 N/A N/A
^NDX 4:44PM 1329.90 +12.66 $0.25 +0.96% N/A 1289.91 1343.12 N/A N/A
MSFT 4:01PM 104 5/16 -3/16 -$4.59 -0.18% 30,052,200 101 1/2 106 1/4 257.0B 64.93
INTC 4:01PM 84 1/8 +2 1/4 $26.77 +2.75% 22,862,600 81 1/8 84 37/64 142.7B 26.26
CSCO 4:01PM 96 3/4 +3 5/8 $31.90 +3.89% 24,061,600 92 13/16 97 1/2 100.3B 101.58
DELL 4:01PM 106 3/4 +15/16 $5.16 +0.89% 30,427,700 98 1/4 107 1/4 67.568B 75.30
WCOM 4:01PM 50 7/16 +2 $9.20 +4.13% 19,135,100 47 1/2 50 15/16 52.056B 185.27
GE 4:35PM 86 3/4 +1 5/16 $34.12 +1.54% 8,021,100 85 1/2 88 7/16 282.3B 34.16
KO 5:01PM 80 3/8 +1 3/4 $38.50 +2.23% 5,335,400 77 5/8 81 1/4 198.5B 52.98
XON 4:00PM 66 3/16 -15/16 -$20.62 -1.40% 4,345,600 64 67 1/8 161.9B 21.82
PFE 4:35PM 105 7/8 +1 3/8 $15.12 +1.32% 4,563,300 102 5/8 106 3/8 138.2B 58.04
MRK 5:01PM 121 1/8 +2 $20.00 +1.68% 4,184,200 117 3/8 122 11/16 144.8B 30.30
NB 5:01PM 76 3/4 +1 15/16 $13.56 +2.59% 3,586,500 73 11/16 77 1/2 73.517B 18.30
Totals: Today $169.40+1.26%
--------------------------
On the one hand this makes for a sort of narrow market,
but also it makes for a Liquid market.
Smaller caps which are hard to sell , have been sold down
but if the Liquid part can hold we should not wind up with
a bear market.
For some time I have said that the move into the Large Caps,
appears to be cautious buying. Many funds that are not index
funds appear to hold the large caps as their top holdings.
Also we have many new index funds in the last several years
as money flows into them they have to buy more and more of
the supercaps in order to match the weighting of the S&P.
If money flows out of the index funds they will then have to
sell more of index stocks that are the top weighted ones.
That money flow will show up in the Nifty Fifty..as well
as my Magic Ten, and likely more in the latter.
-----------------
I believe the many indexers have given the market a certain
nature and until a very major change comes this will have
to prevail. As long as these super caps don't break down and
actually start losing faster than the index the market won't
melt down. They do that at times just before corrections,
but seldom do they continue to out run the down market,
it seems that when they fall it panics the rest of the market
into selling off even harder, as cautious fund managers who are
not indexing want to get out of the harder to sell thinner traded stocks, but will hold the more liquid ones.
--------------------
People tend to say earnings drives the stock market, & it's the
long term FA of it all, but any one who looks at that premise
very good will see it's not so, or at least not the primary
driving force, but "Liquidity is", and that won't change until
there is a major crash, and even after a major crash, it will
once again become the main force as long as we have a market
cap weighted S&P and funds trying to match or beat it.
Analcyst and earnings forecasters will make excuses and dance
around the fact that the very top market cap stocks have a lower
P/E as a group than the rest of the market, they would rather
live in some form of denial than to admit earnings is not the
King of the road. <G>
This ought to get real interesting as the tulips of the age
the "internut" stocks gain in market cap to where they dictate
where the majority of money gets invested , already MSFT is
challanging GE , it blows my mind to think that windows is
going to sell more disks than XON sells oil , or MRK sells
drugs, but the market don't mind pricing her as doing just
that, and there is nothing that will stop it short of a
major crash. It may be insane but it's also a fact and
we need to go with it or get run over.
Also note there is more money invested in MSFT that all
the major Semi conductors put together in the SOXX index,
and it will likely stay that way.
Is it any wonder why Greenspam can't under stand the market,
he thinks it's supposed to be logical. <G>
Jim
|
