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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (12673)	8/5/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: Alan Newman	Respond to of 164684

I went to lunch and when I came back, my GTC order to cover my short of the AUG 100 Calls for $8 executed. I guess during that brief moment when AMZN hit 100. I can assure you that the money I made on this was emotionally draining! I sold these calls when AMZN was at 96, and got 12.5 for the calls. In between, AMZN went to $140, and my calls were losing me an extremely nice BMW! Patience pays! Alan

To: Rob S. who wrote (12673)	8/5/1998 5:27:00 PM
From: zax	Respond to of 164684

--> Suggested Analogy <-- How do you valuate a tulip? Compare it to other tulips. I suggest that AMZN is in many ways analagous to NSCP. I would call this point in time, the Dec 95 NSCP equivalent, for AMZN. In my book, in fact, Amazon has much less going for it than Netscape ever did, so for sellers, this would be my projected worst case scenario long term. I believe the similarities between the two companies, their markets, associated buying crazes, prevailing analysts recommendations, and stock performances are simply too great to be overlooked. iqc.com Thus we have Zax's Analysis for AMZN: Short term: SHORT Intermediate term: SHORT Long term: SHORT In a 10 year time frame? Who knows. I hope I'm still alive then. Just callen 'em likes I sees 'em. -- Zaxbowow

To: Rob S. who wrote (12673)	8/5/1998 5:32:00 PM
From: TraderDad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Despite yesterday's fleeting breech of the declining tops line, AMZN resumed its downward course again. A rise today that would have negated the trend did not happen. So far it's pretty close to schedule per my post of last week: >>i don't think we'll see 120 again, and after a couple of days 110 will be a distant memory. Based on past behavior of mania stocks my outlook is as follows: It may hold around 100-110 awaiting AOL's earnings, then drop fast to 90-95 , bounce off the 50-d MA at ~98, hold there for a few days then plunge to 75-80 before the end of the month. Any rallies will not violate the declining trend line. << It did drop fast today, but unfortunately recovered somewhat. I would hope we see 90-95 tomorrow. The reason for an expected sharp drop below the 50-d MA is to give room for a strong rebound from the MA without violating the declining tops line. Jan, I believe the slow steady ramp down IS the method by which the VC's+6 cash out. What better way than a predictable draw down. This keeps the volume up with a stable price range. The volume needs to be there in order to effect the distribution. I believe they really don't want excessive volitility at this point because that brings risk of sharp down swings, and a possibility of an accelerated sell-off. This is uncertainty they don't want. So far, classic behavior. JMO