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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ivan solotaroff who wrote (20253)	8/6/1998 2:31:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 79260

Ivan, Reviewing ESOL's signal history shows that the first signal on 4/16/97 gave an opportunity to buy the next day at 3 15/16 or 4. It subsequently went to 8 1/16 in 14 trading days. The volume on the day it hit that high was greater than that of the signal day. That volume would have certainly triggered your observation for a sell signal. The close that day was 7 1/4 so assuming you got in at 4 1/4 and out at 7, a conservative 60% after comission profit would have been realized. The next signal occurred on 7/16/98. A buy the next day at 3 11/32 would have triggered a protective stop at 3 3/32. A 7.47% loss by the numbers so throw in a few % points to conservatively account for what might be a large commission and it comes to a 10% loss. Until 8/5 those are the only 2 PGDCEB signals on ESOL. If you played them both with the same amount of cash each time...well, you can do the numbers. NOW however, ESOL has developed a signal history. Its history has a record of 1 for 2. A 50/50 proposition. The current signal has greater volume than each of the previous 5 days. This may be stronger than the rules require but the volume on the current signal is much less than the volume on the first signal while volume is nearly twice that of the second, failed, signal. Based on volume, I'd say the prospects for ESOL to, in this particular instance, return the avg, of 18% are good. Doug R