To: David Klein who wrote (15650 ) 8/5/1998 11:45:00 PM From: Johnathan C. Doe Respond to
Take a look at the charts of AWRE, ORCTF, WSTL and overlay PAIR and I think you will get what is happening. We don't have the report, but appearently high-speed telco internet is either projected to take longer and so therefore MM's want to put the money to work someplace else, there is just a dumping of this catagory of stock as speculative and they are getting put down till the correction is over, or the report says that they will be shut out by bigger players such as LU. PAIR was up on takeover speculation, now back down and even farther. My take on all of this is the following: I figure that takeover speculation will return at some point down the road, we don't know when, but let's just say 6 to 9 months max., ADSL is currently out and cable is in, that will change in time and these will bounce back. ORCTF used to be down in the 9 to 11 range itself and seemed to never move and than boom, off it went. Westell is below its all time ever price, seems a stunning bargin at around 6+. PAIR fundamentals are stalled, but its really about the future for PAIR and Westell and PAIR are very similar in their accumulated and crucial understanding of how to integrate ADSL into the existing copper infrastructure which is a job that takes the years these companies have spent developing their products. They are both much more than just the products themselves; they are the expertice of integration of those products. That is worth alot. CS bought what little ADSP had developed and I think they found that it was more work than they had been sold on by Sobel who was an old Bell Labs guy if I recall. Both Westell and PAIR are years and 1000's of manhours ahead of whatever they had. If I recall, PAIR has the chip technology, Westell is a packager of chips from others, so PAIR gets the edge there. Westell needed AMTX, but TI is giving Westell the TI/AMTX product, so I don't see a problem there. If they need multiple sources of the chips, AWRE/ADI will integrate seemlessly with Westell's products, so that isn't a big deal. You have Alcatel collecting the contracts without having the pieces to fulfill the contracts, though they have a link through DIGI with ADI/Aware since DIGI and Aware were partnered right off. I fully expect all these players will get combined together into a few big players hands, so it is a waiting game. Speculation gets hammered out of the market at times like this, and you get PAIR falling since it is a takeover/future specuation play. ADSL is coming, it can't not come, and PAIR will get combined, so how much will the market let it fall. Look at FORE when the market let it fall down the last correction in '97 and it took a long time for it to move up, but boy when it did; big gains. I never worry about PAIR. When the market decides to pick it back up, it will move up sharp and fast. That is the problem with all of this; you can get very spooked by all of that.
