To: Maurice Winn who wrote (13385 ) 8/6/1998 7:23:00 AM From: tero kuittinen Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
Maurice, the UTMS Vodafone is talking about is not CDMA2000. It is the Nokia/Ericsson-developed W-CDMA that ETSI endorsed half a year ago. W-CDMA networks are now being built in Scandinavia, England, Germany, Italy and Japan (two separate ventures). Those are just about the hottest, most advanced mobile phone markets in the world. Room for CDMA2000? No, not really. Gregg is the best spinner in the SI and I acknowledge his supremacy... but even he can't spin away the fact that a CDMA network just got cancelled in China. The ongoing CDMA build-up there seems puzzlingly sluggish and halting. I wouldn't call having ten million Chinese GSM subscribers "two-zero in the first inning". It's more like slam-dunk if we have to stick to yankee sports idioms. The fact that the cancellation takes place just as W-CDMA is gathering steam as the global 3G standard is no coincidence. Any IS-95 networks in China would be indeed orphaned when W-CDMA arrives. GSM networks are getting a smooth upgrade to W-CDMA and that's a major asset. The combined clout of European, Chinese and Japanese markets for W-CDMA is awesome. It should be obvious by now that there is little chance of getting IS-95 compatibility built in the W-CDMA. Half a dozen experimental networks are already being built - none of the operators has the slightest interest in IS-95 and to the NTT-Docomo it actually represents a competitive threat from rival operators. Yeah, Qualcomm may end up getting licensing income from W-CDMA. So what? So will Ericsson and Nokia, they built the specs. But only Ericsson (and hopefully Nokia) will get the fat 40% profit margins on selling these networks, Qualcomm is years late in this game. It feels morally repulsive to defend Swedes... but this time they've got it right. You may as well write off those Forbes love letters to Qualcomm... it's the most xenophobic of the American business magazines. Businessweek seems much more objective! Tero